| From the first domestic auto finance company set up to now, it has been established more than a dozen professional auto finance companies, while commercial banks are also positive developments in automobile finance business. Compared to the downturn of 2004, the domestic auto finance industry has shown the vigorous momentum of development. With the improvement of living standards of people in China and enhance of consumer awareness, more and more consumers will join the ranks of car loans. It is foreseeable the good prospects for development of China's auto finance market.However, compared to the mature foreign auto finance market, the current auto finance market is still confusion and it is not uncommon of default. Imperfect of credit system, non-transparency of private income and great mobility of the population cause increase risk of default. Coupled with the current system of car credit, environment, personal credit scoring and there are many constraints on the operation, which also resulted in increased credit risk of default. Therefore, the study on auto finance companies how to effectively control the risk of default has theoretical and practical significance.First, this article argues the background of topics, development of auto finance, research status, and research methods and so on. Secondly, analyze theoretically the reason of individual car loan default of the auto finance company, and analyze the resource of risk from aspects of personal, auto finance companies, legal system and price. And then from an empirical point of view, analyze the default risk factors of the personal car loan, which are whether the local real estate in the past year loans in repayment, the loan period, work on stability and income. And then the result is that the forecast combination forecasting model is better than single statistical forecasting methods. Finally, give improvement advices from the credit rating, credit audit, post-loan management, system and competition and so on. |
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