Analysis On The Relationship Between The Price Fluctuation Of Virtual Capital Market And Monetary Policy

This dissertation analyses the relationship between price fluctuation on the virtual capital market and monetary policy by applying empirical analysis and comparative analysis. In order to reveal the relationship between them, this paper makes the stock market and real estate market as the center of virtual capital market. And then, using monthly data of 2002-2009 years in China, the ADF unit root tests, Granger causality test and Johansen co integration analysis, to analyze empirically the impact on virtual capital market of People's Bank's monetary policy and the impact on the consumption effects and investment effects of price fluctuations in the virtual capital market.This paper is divided into four chapters. In the first chapter, the author briefly introduces the definition and scope of virtual capital. Also, the author analysis the current virtual capital market's development in China and put forward the important significance on studying the relationship between the price fluctuation on the fictitious capital market and monetary policy. The second chapter analysis the relationship between price fluctuations of virtual capital market and monetary policy by the following two aspects:First, theoretical analysis of the implementation of monetary policy impact on the price of virtual capital. Second, effects of the price fluctuation of the virtual capital market on the efficiency of monetary policy. By comparison, the traditional theory of monetary transmission mechanism ignores the role of virtual capital market in the monetary transmission. The overlook is the reason for monetary police's ineffective. The third part is empirical analysis, which is divided into two parts. The first part is the impact on the virtual capital market of monetary policy's implementation. The second part is the empirical research of the impact of virtual capital market on the ultimate objective of monetary policy. According to the above empirical analysis, reached the following conclusions:(1) China's loose monetary environment is the main reason for the price increase of virtual capital market. (2) Because the channels, through which the virtual capital market can affect the ultimate objective of monetary policy, are blocked, so the effectiveness of monetary policy will be reduced. Chapter four contains conclusions and policy recommendations. When formulating and implementing monetary policy, the central bank should take full account of the virtual capital market, and should be reasonable control of the size and the flow of credit funds. The central bank also should clear the channels which are blocked and guide the virtual capital market develop in the health direction.