The Research On The Appropriate Size Of Foreign Exchange Reserve In China

Since the 21st century, along with the economic globalization and the financial internationalization's unceasing deepening, the world economics entered the brand-new development time, various countries'creation more wealth at the same time, also contains the risk, the foreign exchange reserve as an important factor to support the healthy development of a country, even more receives all levels of the government to pay attention, now, the whole world accumulates reaches as high as 8,000,000,000,000 US dollar above foreign exchange reserves to become the object which once more people pay attention. Our country as the greatest foreign exchange reserve in the world, not only maintain the health and the development of the home money, also need to maintain the security and the stability of the international finance environment.At the end of 2009, after the whole world financial crisis, our country foreign exchange reserve remaining sum close 2,400,000,000,000 US dollars, compare in 2008 to grow 23.28%. The huge foreign exchange reserve while improves our country economic status and enhancement resistance international finance risk, also has brought the risk relatively, the large amount foreign exchange reserve while enhances our country degrees of comparison and reimburses ability, also has enlarged the pressure which inside and outside the macroeconomic policy, the foreign exchange reserve by no means more better. The sustained growth foreign exchange reserve does not favor enhances the national overall economy the operating efficiency, the hindrance state money policy carries out effectively independently. But US dollar continually depreciation, also causes our country foreign exchange reserve to have the large shrinkage, the anticipation of Renminbi revaluation also causes the pressure which our country foreign exchange reserve faces to be getting bigger and bigger. To our country, seeks the balancement of the foreign exchange reserve between the scientific management and effective use, and realizes the foreign exchange reserve property rentability, has received the related theorists and the practical realm high attention, under this situation, determined that our country foreign exchange reserve scale and economic development level's uniformity, and the exceeding the quota foreign exchange reserve's optimization manages into the significant research subject, has the vital practical significance and the research value. This article altogether divides into five chapters:The first chapter introduction selected topic background and significance, article research content and basic mentality, research technique and article flaw and insufficiency; The second chapter reviewed domestic and foreign about the foreign exchange reserve scale research, and has analyzed the foreign exchange reserve scale research trend of development of our country; The third chapter introduced since reform and open policy, the development process of the foreign exchange reserve in our country, simultaneously analyzed the present situation of the foreign exchange reserve; The fourth chapter takes into the Improvement of Agarwal model as the foundation, takes GDP, the foreign loan remaining sum, the fixed asset investment cost, the import and export scale and so on related economic agent as the variable, carries on the empirical analysis to our country foreign exchange reserve scale, and has done the production mechanism research to our country high quota foreign exchange reserve, and has carried on the analysis appraisal to the conclusion; The fifth chapter acts according to our country national condition, has carried on the summary and the analysis to our country foreign exchange reserve existence's question and the optimized management, and has carried on the policy suggestion.This article uses the analysis method includes:(1) the empirical analysis and the canonical parse unify. The paper to affected our country foreign exchange reserve scale the factor to carry on the qualitative analysis, and unified our country's concrete national condition and the foreign exchange reserve theory, has conducted the empirical study to our country moderate foreign exchange reserve scale and the exceeding the quota foreign exchange's production mechanism; (2) contrasts the analytic method. The paper in studies in our country foreign exchange reserve scale, in the overseas research's foundation, contrasts our country actual situation, joins the definition factor, proposed that suits our country national condition the measurement model; (3) graph analytic method. In involves in each kind of related economic agent, utilization many kinds of graphs, a more direct-viewing reality, the analysis result is clear; (4) the tendency and the vertical analysis unify. With the vertical analysis our country foreign exchange reserve's development process and the present situation, and using the dynamic analysis, analyze our country foreign exchange reserve the trend of development and the development tendency, enables the findings to have certain foresight. This article argues the Improvement of Agarwal model after the improvement to carry on the empirical analysis to our country foreign exchange reserve, draws the following conclusion:The first stage (1994-1995 years), these two year our country foreign exchange reserves actual value is lower than the reckoning the foreign exchange reserve minimum value, means that these two year our country foreign exchange reserve scale is insufficient, cannot satisfy the physical demand and the economic development; The second stage (1996-2001 years), for these years, our country foreign exchange reserve's actual value was in the reckoning between the foreign exchange reserve bound, with the theory moderate value quite, namely these six year our country's foreign exchange reserve scale was reasonable; The third stage (2002-), since 2002, along with the economical recovery, our country foreign exchange reserve large rise, foreign exchange reserve's actual value by far is higher than the theoretical value until now, and assumes year by year the trend of escalation, in 2009, our country foreign exchange reserve actual value far ultra theory moderate value 1,797,600,000,000 US dollars. This indicated that in the recent ten years, our country has the exceeding quota of the foreign exchange reserve truly, in next several years, will continue maintain this tendency.