The Research On The Contribution Of Region Logistics To Regional Economy Growth

Under the big background of regional economies integration, the modern logistics develops into an important industry and the new economic growth point in the 21 century. At the beginning in 2009, modern logistics industry rows in which Country Ten Big Promotion Industry Planning. The research on influence of region logistics to regional economies growth has been widely paid attention. He-Nan Province has the very important geographical position and the transportation superiority. It has the very important theory value and practical significance to study region logistics industrial development evolution and prove the influence of region logistics to regional economies growth of the He-Nan Province.The paper takes He-Nan Province as study object. In the foundation of summary the domestic and foreign related research, the paper studies region logistics growth mechanism and evolved way according to industry life cycle theory, takes the factorial analysis method to make the thorough analysis the factors to the region logistics industrial development and obtains the key influence factors. Then the paper conducts the empirical study on the 1978-2007 years region logistics and the regional economies growth, establishes the Logistic regression model, and carries on the econometrics analysis. At the end of the paper, it proposes the logistics industrial policies suit to economic development of He-Nan Province according to the stage of logistics development and realizes the coordination development.The study indicates: The region logistics industry has experience life cycle seed time, growth period, mature period, decline or the transformation time as like other industries. Region logistics industry of He-Nan Province is being in the fast development the growth period. The three key influence factors to the region logistics industrial development are the economic development level factor, the logistics management level factor, the input logistics technology factors, and their degree of contribution is different, respectively is 43.6%, 29.4%, 20.1%. The boundary value of He-Nan region logistics industry increases year by year from during 1978-2005 years that the He-Nan logistics industry to economic growth's contribution function is remarkable, and assumes the increasing tendency. In 2005 the boundary value presents the inflection point, afterward the boundary value assumes the slow drop year by year, estimated that in 2011 is 3.37%. The elasticity coefficient of He-Nan logistics to the GDP is bigger than 1 except just initial stage and after year in 2011 that shows the He-Nan logistics to the economic growth drawing function. In 2007 the He-Nan cargo volume of the circular flow grows 100 million ton kilometers every time, draws the GDP increase is 5.25 (i.e. 189,500,000 Yuan). The cargo volume of the circular flow grows 1% every time, follows GDP to grow 1.27%. The two digit show that the drawing function of the He-Nan region logistics to regional economic is very obvious at present regardless of being the absolute value or the relative quantity. According to the reckoning, the elasticity coefficient of He-Nan logistics to the GDP will be will be 0.78%, smaller than 1 in 2011, which indicates that the influence function dynamics aspect has been weaken obviously, the drawing function is not obvious.