System Dynamics Simulation Of The Economy-energy-environment3E System In Chengdu

The sustainable development of economy is inseparable from the strong supportof the energy system and the load carrying capacity of the environment. This paper,based on the multidisciplinary theories of economics, ecology, management andinformation science, takes the city of Chengdu as the object of study. Firstly, itconducts comprehensive analysis on Chengdu’s economic, energy and environmentalsystems; secondly, it uses system dynamics to build the simulation model of theenergy-environment-economy system of the area of Chengdu; lastly, it presentsrelevant policy recommendations from the perspective of sustainable economicdevelopment. The main results of this study are: the simulation model research ofsystem dynamics finds that, the rapid expansion model, that is, the basic behaviorpattern and single-minded pursuit of high economic growth, proves to be aunsustainable development model; in contrast to the basic behavior pattern, thestructural adjustment mode of environmental protection investment and thecoordinated development mode, taking the sustained and steady economic growth ofthe west area and the rational development and utilization of energy resources intoconsideration, can narrow the gap of the regional supply and demand and improve itssupporting efficiency to the sustainable economic development. The coordinateddevelopment mode, stressing the optimization of the structures of the thrice industrialand the environmental protection investment, tries to adjust the ratio of the industrialstructures of the primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry into1:49:50and the ratio of the shares of investment in waste gas treatment, solid wastestreatment and waste water control into5:1:4, and reduce the energy intensity per unitof GDP at an average annual reduction rate of0.5. The scientific significance of thispaper lies in that, on the basis of the principle of system dynamics, it studies the actualdevelopment situation of all the subsystems of Chengdu’seconomy-energy-environment system and the interaction effects among them; itbuilds the model structure of the subsystems according to the physical truth, analyzesthe parametric equation relationship between different indicators, develops the flowgraph of the economy-energy-environment system, uses the software VENSIM to construct the dynamical model of the economy-energy-social economy system that isexecutable on a computer. The results of the validity check of the model suggest that,the fitting degree of the model to the important indicators of the practical energy,environment, society, economy systems is satisfactory. Moreover, the sensitivity testand analysis of the model shows results in accordance with the actual logicalrelationship. Therefore, it can be assumed that this model fits the actual systemsituation both in structure and logic with a low quantity error and relatively accuratestimulation results. At the end, with computer modeling and simulation methods, thispaper conducts simulation and prediction analysis on the future development ofChengdu’s energy, environment and social economy.