Ground Movement And Deformation Prediction Method Research Under Thick Loose Layer Mining

The prediction of mining subsidence is one of the major topics of mine mining, in view of our country having great amount of coal about "three under", doing a good job of mining subsidence prediction work and using the accurate and reliable the predicted results to guide the practice of mining has a vital role in the work of mining subsidence.In our country, probability integral method is usually used in mining subsidence under the general geological mining conditions,it is quite mature and its predicted results can meet the demand of mining, but the situation that loose layer thickness can not be ignored is not taken into account, eventually leads to the movement and deformation’s predicted outcome is poor in thick loose layer that it is the special geological and mining conditions. The paper introduces the basic theory of traditional probability integral method In detail, regards its unit subsidence basin as the starting point and analysis of mining under thick unconsolidated layers of surface movement and deformation characteristics, characteristics of surface movement and deformation under thick loose layer coal mining are analyzed and summarized, puts forwords the loose layer influence coefficient, constructs the corrected probability integral method prediction model that is suitable for thick loose mining condition, through the comparing the measured values, the probability integral method estimates and correction probability integral values between subsidence and horizontal movement, finds that corrected model predicted values are more in line with measured value.The paper realizes the movement and deformation predicted value comparison between the traditional probability integral method and corrected probability integral method at the subsidence basin main-profile and any point, on the halfway, the numerical predicted results in the form of Excel are stored in the project file, and uses the AutoCAD to draw the movement and deformation curve, visualizes the predicted results, through the comparison between the two-dimensional graph, finds that corrected probability integral method obviously reduces the convergence speed of predicted curve and is more in line with the field value, proves that the corrected model is done. In order to complete the3D visualization of surface subsidence basin, the paper uses ActiveX automation interface technology to call the Matlab.The paper combines the two prediction model theory, regards VB6.0as development platform, combines with AutoCAD software, compiles the " ground movement and deformation prediction system under thick loose mining " software, the efficiency of data processing improves greatly.