Uncertainty Analysis And Its Application Of Transport-transformation Models

The propagation of atmospheric and hydrologic pollutants is affected by various kinds ofuncertainties such as geology, meteorology and human activities and so on. Therefore, thestudy on pollutant uncertainty has become a focus and hotspot in the field of environmentalpollution research. In the study of uncertainty, Monte Carlo (MC) Method and LatinHypercube Sampling (LHS) method have been widely used, but when it comes to a modelwith high demand on computational complexity, the demand of time and resource which thesemethods spend are higher which makes it difficult for the traditional method to be widelyspread in practical application. Therefore, it has important academic significance andapplication values to develop a kind of effective method based on uncertainty propagation inpractice.In order to develop an effective uncertainty propagation approach, this article embarksfrom the solution to high computational complexity model, focuses on Stochastic ResponseSurface Method (SRSM) based on uncertainty, compared to MC method random simulation,illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed method by concrete practical problems andapplies this method to uncertainty assessment of environmental pollution problem.The main purpose and research content of this paper are shown as follows:(1) Study the existing uncertainty propagation problems based on Hermite polynomialexpansion of the SRSM, combined with previous theoretical improvements and applicationson this issue. Induct, deduct and summarize this method, Contribute to judgment ofenvironmental management departments, the uncertainty propagation problems for the futureprovides a theoretical basis and direction;(2) Analyze the actual problems and improve methods in view of uncertainty propagationmethod which was proposed in the first order of groundwater model, compare it with theexisting SRSM and MC method, and verify the high precision and efficiency of improvedmethod;(3) Extend SRSM to atmospheric pollutants diffusion model, for the Gaussian diffusionmodel, effectively analyze the pollutant concentration in diffusion of continuous point sources,continuous line sources and continuous point sources, compare it with MC method, and verify the validity of SRSM in air pollution dispersion model.