Research On The Largest Aftershock And Ensuing Strong Earthquake Of Ms8(?) Artux Great Earthquake

In August 22,1902.The Ms8? great earthquake occurred in the region of Artux area in Xinjiang, epicenter location is:N40.0°,E76.1°.After the main shock, In August 31 st of the same year, A strong earthquake occurred in Xinjiang. Is this earthquake are the largest aftershock of Xinjiang Ms8? great earthquake. Existing literature data and catalog has different views on the epicenter and magnitude data of this earthquake. At present, has not yet seen a detail research report about it. In this paper, through comparing the data of seismic determination and historical records about this earthquake from domestic and foreign country. This paper has made the research about magnitude and epicenter location of this earthquake. through analysis the relationship of earthquake structure isosismal distribution et al, between the great earthquake happened in August 22,1902 and the great earthquake happened in August 31,1902. Than through research the ancient place’s name and evolution of the magnitude determination history. After these essential factors research we conclusion that the most reasonable magnitude is Ms7.0(+0.1)and epicenter location is from epicenter of Ms8? great earthquake 70 km in north. from that we finally certain this earthquake is the largest after earthquake of the great earthquake happened in August 22,1902.After August 22, 1902 Xinjiang Artux Ms8? great earthquake happened. An earthquake had happened in 1996, which magnitude is Ms6.9 and epicenter is located in the meizoseismal area of Artux Ms8? great earthquake. It’s difficult to estimate in the way of great earthquake local reducing theory. Then the question is the next Ms≥8.0 great earthquake that seismogenic model is similar with the great earthquake happened in August 22,1902. Is there a similar situation will be happen? Will there is an earthquake of magnitude 7 happen in the meizoseismal area of old great earthquake? This paper will research this problem, in the way of structural analogy. We think that under the similar structure conditions the aftershock and the ensuing earthquake is more similar. In this paper we studied the ensuing earthquake of 1902 Artux magnitude 8? graet earthquake. As August 22, 1902 Xinjiang Artux Ms8? great earthquake a sample great earthquake the 8-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on may 12,2008 ?and the 8-magnitude Gulang earthquake which occurred on may 23,1927?.We going to focus on Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on may 12,2008. The approach of achieving this point, we compare with three vertical thrust typy earthquake which data had by instrumental records. The comparison the structural element like the geophysical background, tectonic environment, and characteristics of the aftershock, like the energy of aftershock, corioli force et al of three scarced events. After analysis the comparison above, we finally think that Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in May 12, 2008 and Gulang Ms8.0 earthquake occurred in May 23, 1927 has several factors similar with Artux Ms8? graet earthquake. We consider that in the area of extreme ground in Wenchuan earthquake will happened an strong earthquake which PGA≥0.3G,within 100 years.