The Assessment Of Life Losses Risk Cause By Earthquake

With the rapid development of economy and the rising of the national wealth,earthquake grows more and more big threat to polity, economy, society and personal family and causes psychological shadow, which is the biggest disaster threatening for human life that we must do the response operations well in advance. Therefore we must assess loss of life to earthquake-prone regions before earthquake happens that can confirm the highest loss of life region where is make reasonable strategy and policy. This paper sets up evaluation index system of seismic loss of life based on the previous researches in terms of earthquake hazard, stability of disaster-forming environment, vulnerability for hazard bearing body and ability for earthquake disaster prevention and confirm the weight of indexes made by AHP evaluating the life losses caused by earthquake hazards in Longnan region based on settlement place units and draws some conclusions as follows:1. In the exploration of administrative village unit, town unit, county unit and settlement place unit, it is found that the precision of town unit is minimum among these unit except that in the 9 degree intensity the precision of town unit exists great deviation which is 12.27%;the deviation of mortality rate among these units is maximum in the 9 degree intensity that the deviation of mortality rate for county is1.66 persons per ten thousand, the deviation of mortality rate for town is 1.10 persons per ten thousand, the deviation of mortality rate for settlement place is 1.54 persons per ten thousand.2. The study contrasts building data of field research to remote sensing image to acquire the settlement place building date in Longnan region based on Google earth.The maximum percent of frame structure is Wudu county which is 5.47% of the total area in Wudu county; The maximum percent of masonry-concrete structure is Cheng county which is 41.23% of the total area in Cheng county; The maximum percent of industrial building is Wudu county which is 1.99% of the total area in Wudu county;The maximum percent of post and panel structure is Huixian county which is 54.89%of the total area in Huixian county; The maximum percent of adobe house is Lixian county which is 25.63% of the total area in Lixian county.3. This paper sets up evaluation index system of seismic population risk in terms of earthquake hazard, stability of disaster-forming environment, vulnerability for hazard bearing body and ability for earthquake disaster prevention based on the previous research and determine the weight of indexes made by AHP and finally confirm the model of the risk of life loss by earthquake in Longnan region which is’ Risk=0.46×H+0.16×E +0.29×V +0.09×(9-R)’.4. A comprehensive analysis of the risk of life loss by earthquake in Longnan region is made which confirms the risk of life loss by earthquake of different intensityin the next 10 years. The result indicates that the degree of the risk of life loss by earthquake in Longnan region enlarges with the increasing of intensity. The highest risk of life loss by earthquake begin to appear in the 8 degree intensity, which is2.00% of the total area in Longnan region; The highest risk of life loss by earthquake region in the 9 degree intensity is 23.50% of the total area in Longnan region; in the10 degree intensity, there is 33.40% of the total area in Longnan region suffering from the highest life losses. In the administrative division, the maximum area county of highest life losses is Tanchang county, which is 8.18% of the county area in the 8degree intensity; the maximum area county of highest life losses is Tanchang county,which is 44.37% of the county area in the 9 degree intensity; the maximum area county of highest life losses is Xihe county, which is 57.30% of the county area in the10 degree intensity.