The Research Of Geological Loss Distribution In Yunnan Province

Yunnan province is one of serious geological disasters provinces in our country, the area of the national area of only 4.12%, but the average annual losses caused by geological disasters in Yunnan province by more than 20% of the national geological disaster losses. Every year because of the loss and damage caused by geological disasters seriously restricts the development of our economy and society. Therefore, study of geological disasters in Yunnan province loss distribution, so as to prevent or reduce the occurrence of geological hazards, reduce unnecessary damage, ensure the smooth development of society and economy in Yunnan province, promote the construction of "bridgehead" in Yunnan province has the vital significance. This paper will be integrated from a geological disaster geological environment and climate conditions in Yunnan province, regional distribution and so on to summarize and analyze the types of geological disasters, casualties and economic losses caused by in Yunnan province, and every year for prevention and control of geological disasters in Yunnan province investment amount of statistics and processing etc. On this basis, we use extreme value theory on fitting of the distribution the losses caused by geological disasters and use the quantile regression method to study the relationship among the types of geological disasters, Yunnan province for prevention and control of geological disasters investment amount and the distribution of the geological disaster losses in Yunnan province. The research results show that the extreme value theory as a risk management technology, can very good capture and fit the tail properties of geological disasters, the influence of the loss distribution of geological disasters’s factor under different quantile of response variables affect differently and that quantile regression model is more comprehensive than the traditional least square method for the local variables influence.This article is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. It contains the main statement and explain the research background and significance of this paper, the research status and literature review, research method and technicalroute in this paper. The main content innovation points in this paper, the structure and framework are contained, too. The second chapter for the basic situation of the geological disasters in Yunnan province. The third chapter mainly introduces the related theory for loss of data modeling-extreme value theory and the theory of quantile regression, which provides theoretical support for the fourth chapter the empirical. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, this chapter will be fitted the tail of loss data, in order to comprehensively improve the level of Yunnan province geological disaster risk management. The fifth chapter is the countermeasures of the geological hazards in Yunnan province. This chapter puts forward the countermeasures to prevent the occurrence of the geological disasters and the management of the risk of geological disasters by the characteristics of the geological disasters in Yunnan province. The sixth chapter is conclusion and prospect. This chapter mainly through reviewing the work done by previous chapter and content and making a brief evaluation about the next research on geological disasters in Yunnan province loss distribution in the future.