Extended-range Forecast For The Streng Wind On The Huanghai And Bohai Sea

At present,although the extension period weather forecast is a worldwide problem, but there are many scholars both at home and abroad has carried on the beneficial try, there is more try that is used of tracing technology ofthe Low frequency weather map and climate perturbation decomposition to find the source,to find out the source and the need for extended period prediction correlation between weather process,to relalize extended-range forecast of the major disaster weather.This research mainly uses the thinking of the traceability technology, it is used for example of the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea,toLook for the streng winds on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea early signals with the weather process of the evolution of the development process, on the basis of it to set up theprediction model for the streng winds on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea. It is exploreing beneficial for be to set up theprediction model for the streng winds on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea with the business test and the test result analysis.Mainly has carried out the following work:1.It is used the paper reviews the method to inductive the papers of the technology and methods for the extended-range forecast At home and abroad.The results show that the extended-range forecast mainly divided into 6 kinds of methods for Dynamic stretching, Low frequency oscillation, Experience in wave propagation, Mathematical statistics, Climate perturbation decomposition and Ensemble forecast by the classification method for the Dynamic meteorology, synoptic meteorology and statistical meteorology,to be for the extended-range forecast for the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea business test provides for the basis.2.It is used 0.25。*0.25。 Lattice data of ERA Interim of ECMWF, to system analyze the lives and weather system for the extended-range forecast for the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea.The results showedcause weather systems of the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea, it maily is the synoptic-scale system,such as the frontal surface, cyclone, typhoon,et al or the mesoscale systemof be embedded in the the synoptic-scale system。As the weather system and system as the birthplace of the standard,Would be divided into the 3 categories of 6 small class for the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea weather process,it is showed the cold air(North road, Northwest road and West road), extratropical cyclone(the northern cyclones and South cyclone) and typhoon.Provide the basis forthe according to different weather systems for be development process of recovery and statistical analysis of the source characteristic of weather systems for the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea, to provides reference information for be set up the prediction model on thethe streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea.3.Through statistical analysis found that 3 kinds Huanghai and Bohaisea the streng wind s, cold air source range is very wide, but the basic clear and accounted for most of the whole Huang Bohai winds. There, to find the weather process in the course of the development process of the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea by th traceability method on the maps for the 700 hPa,500hPa, 200 hPa, 100 hPa,to provides reference information for the forecast on the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea. CalculatingHuanghai and Bohai sea streng winds with highly relevant origin area, different levelsheight and vorticity in the origin area is used as a factor to establish Huanghai and Bohai sea streng winds forecast model, theensemble forecast method is usedfor the level height and vorticity factor prediction model to make the forecast conclusion integration,to realize the bring forward 14 d extended-range forecast for the streng wind on the Huanghai and Bohai Sea,the results is good.