Research On Progressive Ground Motion Intensity Warning Based On Bayes Principle And Characteristic Parameters Of The P-wave

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system can provide a few seconds to tens of seconds of warning time for impending ground motions due to a large earthquake and allow for mitigation measures to reduce casualties and property losses as much as possible in the short term. As a new method for effectively preventing and reducing earthquake disaster, earthquake early warning (EEW) has received more and more attention. Currently, the earthquake early warning still has much shortage, such as shorter warning time, greater uncertainty, false positives and false negatives serious shortage.This paper focuses on the relationship between progressive ground motion intensity parameters based on Bayes principle and characteristic parameters of the P-wave.(1) In this paper, we use the strong motion records of magnitude 5 and above from Center for Engineering Strong Motion Date to real-time estimate parameters of the ground motion intensity taking the Gutenberg-Richter relationship of the ground motion intensity as prior distribution and considering the characteristic parameters of seismic stations as the likelihood function based on Bayes principle.(2) This article uses τpmax method and τc method making series of studies to estimate peak ground acceleration. There is a good linear relationship between characteristic cycle parameter in the beginning of the first 3s,4s,5s and peak acceleration and contrasts the affection by estimating based on the principle of Bayes. Both the front and rear estimation based on Bayes validate that the discrete of the τc method are smaller and more accurate than the τpmax method. This is consistent with the results of previous studies on the magnitude parameters.(3) It is found that there is a good linear relationship and certain fitting accuracy between displacement amplitude or acceleration amplitude in the beginning of the first 3s,4s,5s and ground motion intensity parameters. On the basis, comparing regression relationships between Pd or Pa and ground motion intensity parameters, fitting accuracy are significantly improved. The fitting results shows the discrete reduced and the fitting accuracy improved with the time window extended. But the fitting precision of the window of 5s elevates less than the window of 4s.(4) In this paper, we take the velocity amplitude Pv as a warning parameter and research the correlation between velocity amplitude in the beginning of the first 3s,4s, 5s and ground motion intensity parameters or progressive ground motion intensity parameters based on Bayes principle.There is a good linear relationship between velocity amplitude in the beginning of the first 3s,4s,5s window and peak acceleration or peak velocity of the front and rear estimation based on Bayes principle by utilizing double logarithmic coordinates and the least square method.