Risk Analysis Of Economic Evaluation For Construction Of Jack-up Platform

Regarding the lifetime of platform as a time unit and considering the time value of capital, the Inverse Transform Technique of Monte Carlo method is used to simulate series of revenue and expenditures for construction of 400ft jack-up platform. The distribution of operation profit is fitted. Meantime the distribution models of the expense are established for risk analysis. Compared with an equivalent distribution method, The risk index of construction of platform engineering invest is calculated with a total probability method. Sensitivity analysis of main parameters is carried out to make the result more practical. The main conclusions made from the economic risk analysis process are as follows.(1) First of all, the development and application of risk analysis in various fields are summarized. The researches of ocean engineering economic risk analysis are reviewed in detail. The probability analysis method will be the trend for risk analysis for economic evaluation.(2) Both market requirements and technical requirements are the foundation to select the types of jack-up platform. The selection of the basic equipments of jack-up platform is analyzed. The suitable new platform are chosen.(3) The financial evaluation is a significant part to build the 400ft jack-up platform. Then the uncertainty risk is analyzed. Both the static and dynamic indicators are adopted to evaluate the feasibility of the construction of the platform in financial analysis. The direct integral method is used to calculate two economic models. Through the comparison of these two models, we discuss the availability and accuracy of evaluation ability.(4) Sensitivity analysis are carried out finally. The variation of risk can be seen by changing the single variable. Corresponding measurements can be taken for risk prevention in advance and provide powerful support for policy making.