The Model Of Forest Fuel Moisture With Logistic Curve

The forest fuel moisture is one of the most important factors that predict the occurrence of forest fires and control the spread of forest fires. The study and research of fuel moisture for exploring fuel moisture variation is very significant. In this paper, three aspects of forest fuel moisture are studied.First of all, based on the Logistic curve model for presenting the fuel moisture prediction models, the model shows that t time fuel moisture content can be used in this paper, t-k1 moment of temperatures, t-k2 moment of relative humidity and t-k3 moment wind speed to predict t+1 moment fuel moisture content; the Logistic function introduced in the model to make the model more realistic simulation results; and gives a formula to estimate model parameters. The actual test showed that the model accuracy rate of 98%, description of the method to establish the model is feasible, the established model can be applied to the actual forest fire forecast.Secondly, the fuel equilibrium moisture content is deduced in this paper based on the Logistic curve, that when temperature, relative humidity and wind speed must be given the fuel estimation formula of the equilibrium moisture content; and gives the equilibrium moisture content estimation method parameters in the model. For several meteorological factors combination for simulation, the simulation result is in line with the actual.Finally, the reaction time model is deduced in this paper, as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed is constant, given a certain initial moisture content, can be estimated the time required to reach equilibrium moisture content; and presents a reaction time model parameter estimation method. For several meteorological factors combinations are simulated, the simulation results are consistent with the actual in line.