The Area Of Low Latitude Plateau Forecast Research On Climate Change In The Future Based On CMIP5’s Five Models

In this paper, the use of materials:five models of CMIP5in meteorological data based on month average, according to the high resolution of the mean months observed grid data and monthly precipitation grid data. For models, the length of time from the January1961to December2099; for the high resolution temperature and precipitation grid data, the length of time from January1961to December2005. The main use of BP neural network, EOF analysis and multiple regression on the low latitude plateau for climate downscaling prediction of the future. The result showed that:(1)The CCSM4model, IPSL-model model and MIROC5model to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the low latitude plateau in the next94years, with the changes of RCP26, RCP45and RCP85emission scenarios, temperature increase, precipitation increased also increased.(2) The GFDL-CM3model to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the low latitude plateau region in the next94years, in RCP26, RCP45and RCP85three emission scenarios, the temperature was increased first and then decreased, the precipitation showed a decreasing trend after the first increase.(3) The HadGEM2-AO model to simulate the temperature and precipitation of the low latitude plateau region in the next94years, in RCP26, RCP45and RCP85three emission scenarios, the temperature was increased, the increase trend of precipitation was less.(4) A ensemble of temperature model simulation of the low latitude plateau region in the next94years in the RCP26, temperature, RCP45and RCP85three emission scenarios, the temperature rise and the temperature increase is more significant increasing linear trend; To2099, compared with the2005average temperature, RCP26emission scenarios, the temperature rises0.9C, RCP45emission scenarios, the temperature rises1.8degrees, RCP85emission scenarios, the temperature rises of3.3degrees.(5) A collection of precipitation model of low latitude plateau area rainfall in the next94years, in the RCP26, RCP45and RCP85three emission scenarios, the precipitation showed an increasing trend, and the precipitation increased significantly in a linear trend:To2099, compared with2005of annual precipitation, RCP26emission scenarios, the average monthly precipitation increased136mm; RCP45emission scenario, the annual precipitation increase158mm, RCP85emission scenario, the annual precipitation increase486mm.