Research On Characteristics Of Thunderstorm And Lightning Forecast Based On The Edge Of Subtropical High Situation In Jiangsu Area

This paper study on edge of subtropical high thunderstorms mainly from two aspects,the first part is based on the characteristics of edge of subtropical high thunderstorms in jiangsu area, the second part is on the basis of the mo-del of subtropical high and establish the edge of subtropical high thunderstorm-s forecast equation.Jiangsu is located in the transition zone climate that easy to suffer fro-m severe convective weather, especially6-9month in summer season.these months is the highest ratio in the thunderstorm, the statistics show:there are mainly six types weather situations for thunderstorms in jiangsu province, its name respectively:the upper cold vortex （including cold vortex in North Ch-ina and the northeast cold vortex）, coastal trough, High altitude low troug-h, The low-level warm shear,edge of subtropical high （Using subtropical hig-h below instead）and tropical cyclone. We found that the edge of subtropical high has the highest frequency in thunderstorms, high altitude low trough th-understorm is the second.combining nearly10years dates provided by jiang-su meteorological station, we analysze the spatial and temporal distribution above two thunderstorm.then, we select these two types of typical thundersto-rms and make a comparison on corresponding parameter,such as lightning convection parameter,weather situation map and the lightning characteristics.fi-nally,we summed up the characteristic of subtropical high thunderstormThen, we choose commonly used12convective parameters from2001-2010in jiangsu province,we analyze the space distribution for subtropical hig-h thunderstorm depending on above convective parameters in13cities of ji-angsu province and make a make a contrast to high altitude low trough th-understorm, the results show that a,dt₅8, ic, li, pw and k have a good con -siste with high frequency thunderstorm area, insted hOc, ji, ssi, tcl_t and tt are not obvious.after above analysis, it can provide some reference for subs-equent forecast.We establish the weather model by related theory of the weather.It can provide a model for subsequent subtropical high thunderstorms forecast.we cho-ose convective parameters which the correlation coefficient （absolute value） ab-ove0.3as the key factors for forecast equation at the base of the foregoing study.after we use these key factors to establish logstic equation Finally, th eprediction equation achieve the desired effect based the foregoing forecast eq-u-ation.