Bayesian Model Averaging Prediction Of The Surface Temperature And Precipitation Using CMIP5Data

Based on the CMIP5runs of8models for climate system hindcast of air temperature and precipitation:bcc-csm1.1, CMCC-CM, CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC4h, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and GPCP data are used as observations of temperature and precipitation. We use Bayesian model averaging method to integrate the hindcast of eight models, and evalute the results of BMA. On the basis,we use model projection data to estimate the temperature and precipitation for the period from2011to2035,The Bayesian model Averaging is a multi-model integrated method,and its time series is devided into the training period and the forcasting period. Since the length of the training period has some influence on the results of BMA, the RMSE, ACC and CRPS are used to evaluate the hindcast results of multi-model ensemble mean and BMA result.To improve the efficiency and accuracy of calculation, we choose the length of traing period for temperature is30year and20year for precipitation.Depending on the selected training period, Bayesian model averaging method is used to integerate the surface air temperature and precipitation over East Asia in he period from2011to2035, and use the RMSE, ACC and CRPS score to evalute the results.The results show that the Bayesian model average has smallest RMSE and CRPS score and largerest ACC, indicating that the Bayesian model averaging is better than the average return of eight individual model and ensemble mean results. In addition, the Bayesian model averaging can also get better results of time changes and spatial distribution over the East Asian for temperature and precipitation. For the hindcast of the temperature, the uncertainty over the oceans is less than over the continents,and precipitation is vice..Overall Bayesian model average temperature and precipitation for return better results.In the RCP4.5scenario, the projection of2005is used to estimate the temperature and precipitation for the period from2011to2035, and the results show that the surface air temperature over East Asia would increase, and the increment of the surface air temperature over the oceans is smaller than that over the continents.; while precipitation in most areas will also increase, but the rate of increase is smaller.