Study On Early Warning Model And Criterion Of Rainfall-rock Landslide

Rainfall is one of the most principal factors for rock landslides, which are oftencharacterized by complex formation mechanisms, high secrecy and great harm. Manyscholars have studied at the problems of how do the rainwater transform intounderground water and transport in the rock slopes after rainfall. But the study of howto use appropriate geological model to describe the phenomenon and quantitativeforecast are still rare. On the basis of previous studies, this paper use the methods ofstatistical analysis, geological survey, physical simulation and numerical simulationto study the rainfall infiltration laws and mechanical models of rainfall-induced rocklandslides, and expects to establish the conceptual model, early warning model andcriterion of this landslides. The main research contents and conclusions of this paperincludes the following four aspects:（1）By collecting the rainfall data of landslides in the southwest of China, itestablishes the model early warming, using of statistical method, by the standards ofthe rainfall intensity and rainfall time. According to the rainfall of landslides, thenumber of landslides can be divided into different interval, and4levels early warningmodel of landslide is established.（2）Understanding of the rainfallinfiltrationlawsinslopesisbasedonthefieldsurvey of typical landslide and profile. It can be divided into three different typesaccording to the hierarchical structure of the rock slopes. And establish geologicalmodel by summarizing this three types.（3）It can be concluded,using the methods of physical modeling and numericalsimulation, that the way of rainwater transforming into underground water and theprocess of migration and accumulation of underground water in the rock slopes throughthe analysis of processes and results of the simulation. And the rainfall infiltration lawsin rock slopes can be get by the combination of simulation results, field surveys andtheoretical analysis.（4）It analyzes the physical, chemical and mechanical mechanismof rock slopeswhich is effected on underground water. Rock slopes were divided into permeableslopes and relatively impermeable slopes based on the water permeability. Finally, the early warning models and criterion can be established according to the rainfallinfiltration laws, phases and mechanical mechanism.