A Comparative Study Between The Nordhaus Model And The Hope Model

Global climate change caused widespread concern in the international community, the economics of climate change has become the focus of current research. Using the method of model to study climate change can predict the situation of climate change better in the future, and understand the economic and non-economic impacts caused by climate change more intuitive, which will help to select the current climate change policy.There are many types of climate change models, among theseintegrated assessment models is the mainstream model to study the problem of climate change. Integrated assessment models is based on cost-benefit analysis, which can maximize the social welfare function and find the best reduction path through incorporating abatement cost function and damage function of climate change. Using different methods, integrated assessment models can be divided into the optimization models, the computable general equilibrium models and the simulation models. It also can be divided intoglobal models and regional models according to model area division.This paper selects two kinds of representative integrated assessment models (the DICE/RICE model and the PAGE model) in order to understand climate change deeply and make better use of integrated assessment models. Literature analysis has also been used to cognize the current status of climate change models research in the world, and to learn the conceptual model as well as modeling methods of the DICE/RICE model and the PAGE model. Using data analysis, table of parameters and line graph of main variables in the result are drawn, and data between the two models are compared. At last, longitudinal comparison has been used to research the development process of the two models, while horizontal comparison used to study the differences between them.This paper is divided into six chapters. The exordium introduces research background, methods used and logical framework of the paper. Through collating and analyzing the literatures, Chapter I learns about current research status along with research methods, and makes comment on them. Chapter Ⅱ learns the Hope model from four aspects. Firstly, understands the concept. Secondly, analyses its evolution process. Thirdly, sorts the latest PAGE model, and introduces its equations and parameters. Finally, makes a brief description on its application result. Chapter Ⅲ is the same as Chapter Ⅱ, except that it learns the Nordhaus model and introduces the latest IDCE/RICE model. Chapter Ⅳ compares Hope model and Nordhaus model in the angels of model setting, parameter setting and running results to find out the similarities and differences between them, along with the reasons of the differences. Finally, focus on the latest research trends of the two models, to explore the possible direction of development of climate change models in the future.The study finds, differences between the DICE/RICE model and the PAGE model lie in the aspects of conceptual model, greenhouse gas modeling, global partition, calculation methods, parameters setting, etc. These lead to a large differences between the models’ running results. The main reason is the difference of the value of discount rates. The study also consider that Integrated assessment models is not perfect in dealing with uncertainty, solving the regional and intergenerational fairness, selecting reduction mechanism and selecting endogenous pathways of technological advancement. So measures must be proposed to resolve every aspect of these issues in the further research.