The Research On China’s Accumulated Temperature Bend Evolution Trend

With global warming increasing, climate changes caused by human activities had a great impact on economic activity and social development. China’s industrialization started in the sixties of the last century, the rapid development of industrialization will certainly resulting in climate change. this paper want to research 1961-2010 data on the site, revealing China’s climate change since the sixties of the last century. Based on the regional climate model to the temperature simulation capability, This study want to research the evolution trend of accumulated temperature zone in mid-21 Century in China presented by IPCC under the A1B scenario. This study want to provide us the characteristic of climate change in China. The main points of this study can be summarized as follows:(1)Through 1961-2010 years of anomaly and five ten years of anomaly, The results shows that:from 1961 to 1990, the temperature changes was very slowly, after the last century of 90’s, the temperature was rapid increase, the warming amplitude decreases gradually from northwest to southeast. The distribution map of five ten years accumulated temperature of 8000 ℃ shows that the contour line move northward trend obviously,4500 ℃ contour moving to the northwest,3400 ℃ and 1600 ℃ contour shows moving to lower altitude. Because of ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature is linked to economic crops, With warming increasing,tropical crops planted in our country perhaps expanded to the Northeast, rice planting area in China is likely to expand to the northwest, the cropping system may also change accordingly, winter wheat planting perhaps move to high latitude. of the Tibetan Plateau’s snow line may rise due to climate warming.(2) Through the correlation between the days of accumulated temperature≥10 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature and altitude shows that, both of them have a high degree of correlation. ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature more accurately express the accumulated number of days with zoning. Using Kriging Interpolation can accurately describe the spatial region. Contrast slide with three decades accumulated zoning map found accumulated 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 changed to a lesser extent,just move occurs only in a small area, move the trend is not obvious.1981-2010 accumulated temperature bend significantly show northward movement. largest movement is the northern boundary of the subtropical and warm temperate northern boundary, the range of in the temperate and cold temperate zone are reduce significantly.(3) Regional climate model can well simulate the spatial distribution of accumulated band. Under the A1B scenario, the accumulated temperature band will not change significantly, but some accumulated temperature band will move northward, in the mid-21st century, a relatively large increase in temperature may be the Tarim Basin, Sichuan Basin and the area of the North China Plain.