Probabilistic Wind-Induced Damage Estimation For Roof Covers

Windstorm disaster is one of several common natural disasters. It is also one of the main load source which leads to all types of building structures and ground facilities malfunction or damage. According to several windstorm disaster investigations, damage and collapse of buildings in strong wind often begins with damage to the roof structure.In this paper, based on the wind tunnel test data at the University of Western Ontario, This paper studied the pressure on the building roofs extreme value distribution and made some improvements to some method. Several extreme value distribution calculation methods were used, mainly including block method, peaks over threshold method, the average conditional exceed rate method and translation process method. Translation process method contains probability plot correlation coefficient method and Hermite polynomial method. The auther introduced two models (SGLD and mixture distribution of kernel-GPD’s) to fit the data of original pressure time series while discussing probability plot correlation coefficient method.Using relevancy between adjacent measuring points, this paper introduced binary distribution of extreme value distributions which mainly are bivariate Gumbel distribution and bivariate general extreme value distribution to study the extreme value distribution of wind pressure. Through the analysis of data under different skewness or kurtosis, The extreme value was contrasted between results of various calculations and the observing results of the extreme long actual data, to verify the accuracy, reliability and stability of several method above. It showed that bivariate general extreme value distribution is more stable than any other methods mentioned above in predicting the distribution of extreme value of wind pressure.In the end, A probabilistic assessment method was proposed to measure the roof covering in wind disaster, which could be a reference to prediction and assessment of the damage to the building structure after wind disaster.