Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis On Chinese Coastal Giant Infrastructure Site

Recent years, an increasing number of giant infrastructure are emerging aloneChinese coast which we believe there is the need of the assessment of tsunami risk. OnMarch11,2011, Japanese Tohoku earthquake triggered destructive tsunami that sweptover cities and farmland along the northern part of Japan and threatened coastal areasthroughout the Pacific. Since then, an increasing number of people in China pay closeattention to tsunami hazard analysis on coastal giant infrastructure site, and realize theimportance of building tsunami disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism for Chinacoast.Firstly, in order to list the historical tsunamigenic earthquakes that may affectChina coastal areas, we search the statements about the inundation phenomenon incurrently recognized earthquake catalogues. At last, more than30events were identifiedas the tsunamigenic earthquakes during the past2000years. On the basis of thehistorical tsunamigenic earthquakes records, we can analysis seismic and geologicalcharacteristics of coastal continental shelf, assess the seismicity of coastal areas, addresspotential tsunami sources, and provide a reliable reference for tsunami hazard analysison coastal areas.Secondly, for the areas lack of the historical tsunami data, the numericl simulationmethod is the best effective way to evluate the tsunami hazard. A mature numericalmodel named COMCOT(Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model) is presented inthis paper. COMCOT adopts explicit staggered leap-frog finite difference schemes tosolve Shallow Water Equations in both Spherical and Cartesian Coordinates. We set up6tsunami numerical models which occurred after2010, and the results show thatnumerical data matches the NEGC(National Geophysical Data Center) observation dataand damages well. The reliability of the numerical model then could be applied forProbabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in China.Finally, we proposed a Chinese PTHA (Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis)method by following the regular PSHA (Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) methodsin China and gave the detailed description of framework. The ring of subduction zonesaround the Pacific Ocean is responsible for the most tsunami sources to China. Thedistant sources were not considered in this paper since it has minor effect to China. Thepotential regional tsunami sources for China are typically along the Korean peninsula,the Sea of Japan, Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines Plate. For Sanmen sites,Ryukyu Trench is the only potential source that being considered. While for Dapengsites, there are3potential tsunami sources considered, one regional source is ManilaTrench and other two local sources are Zhu-ao Middle Fault and Dangan Island Fault.In this paper, we accomplish the work of Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis ongiant infrastructure site in Chinese coast, which can provide technical supports onnationwide tsunami hazard assessment and the compling of national tsunami zonaton map.