The Time-space Analysis Of Shanghai C Plate Motor Vehicle In Shanghai Suburban Areas

With the development of economy and the improvement of urban motorization degree, the car ownership in our country has increased rapidly. Rapidly increase of car ownership improves the people’s living standards, and brings convenient travel in their daily live. However, too many cars have increased tremendous pressure to the road. The road congestion, lack of parking spaces and the growing deterioration of the environment become important issues in urban development. Thus, it is an important issue in urban development that planning reasonably for sustainable urban transport. And accurately prediction of the motor vehicle growth is the necessary prerequisite for rational planning. For this international metropolis, Shanghai suburban development in recent years is obvious. And it makes an important project to management the suburban vehicle that Shanghai suburb rapid economic development leads to the rapid growth of the local total vehicle. So, in this paper, we build a statistical model to research the vehicle license plate in Shanghai C form the scale of town area, in order to be meaningful in managing on the Shanghai suburbs vehicles.In this paper, the author first reviews so far since the1990s in Shanghai’s economic development, transport, roads and motor vehicles, and try to find and analyze related factors of the total amount of motor vehicle and find factors that affect the amount of vehicles, including economic factors, Metro effects, and policy factors. Thus, it can be found some factors which can be quantified in the scale of a town.Based on the Shanghai C plate vehicle registration records, the Shanghai suburbs map in recent years, and the Shanghai Statistical Yearbook, the author find the data which meet the scale of town, to make a sheet by suitable process and analyze the data by using special analysis, time analysis and data mining cluster analysis to draw conclusions by different angle of views.This paper has three innovative works: (1)In special analysis, by using the OLS model to find useful data, the author use these data to the GWR model to fit the mount of the Shanghai C Plate in the suburban of Shanghai, and get a good result, and obtain conclusion that the mount of the Shanghai C Plate present spatial correlation and associated with population density, road length of adjacent areas;(2)In Time Analysis, using spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis for different years, it indicates that the hot point of motor vehicles with C plate increase differs at different times. From1994to2000, the hot point of increase located in Shanghai’s suburban areas, and in2002to2008, the hot point concentrated in the satellite towns;(3)Through the cluster analysis for the changes in total amount of motor vehicles with C plate, suburban Shanghai is divided into two development patterns, and describes the C plate motor vehicles’development process in the long time scales and it shows that the focus of suburb development has influenced on the mount of C Plate cars.By using special analysis, time analysis and data mining cluster analysis to draw conclusions by different angle of views, this paper hopes these conclusions can have some reference value for Motor Vehicle Administration of suburban Shanghai...