Comparative Study On Water Level Change And Its Climate Change Response Of Baghrash Lake And Issyk-kul

Lake is the main water resource in arid and dry areas， is an indicator of climate changein the region， meanwhile，is also an important component of the water cycle in arid andsemi-arid areas， is an important information carrier of climate change and regionalresponse，Therefore，its formation and disappearance，expansion and contraction has beena hot topic of scientific research. Changes of lakes including lake area change，changes in thewater level of lakes，lake salinity changes. Among them，the lake water level change is moreobvious，also easier to observe. Baghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul，respectively in the south slopeof the Tian shan mountain and the northern slopes of the mountain basin，in identicallatitude，moreover has the similarity in the basin climate characteristic，the climate is dry，the precipitation are few，the transpiration rate is big，the year temperature difference is big.In the past several decades，Under the combined effect of regional climate change and humanactivities，a series of changes in the lake level and lake basin of Baghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul.This article mainly leaps the water level，two Lake Basin climatic elements as well as therelationship between the lake water level and the climatic element of Baghrash Lake andIssyk-Kul. The results of quantitative and qualitative analysis are as follows:(1) During the period of1961~2012，the annual average water level of Baghrash Lakeoverall showed a significant decline，but the mutation from rise to drop occurred in1973~1977years，the annual average water level exists periodic18a. The variation tendencyof the water level of Baghrash Lake future20a forecast，the lake level may continue todecline after2013，to occur around2023low to high mutation，began to rise. Baghrash LakeBasin stations appear annual average temperature rising trend in recent years，the averageprecipitation is more obvious. The annual average precipitation mutation occurred during1981~1986mutation， annual average temperature occurred in1988~1989years and1996~1997years.The periodic change situation indicated that， the average annual precipitation there exists periodic4a，the annual average temperature of main cycle6~7a.Display multiple time scales in the relationship between lake level and climate factors inBaghrash Lake， lake level and the annual average precipitation and temperature inmountainous areas are related，while in the plain area is given priority to with negativecorrelation.(2) The Issyk-Kul average water level1961to2012periods is significantly downwardtrend， but no mutation exists，there is a22the main cycle. From the annual average waterlevel forecast future trends，the period2013~2028Issyk-Kul water level may continue torise， then gradually declined. Issyk-Kul Basin each represents station average annualprecipitation and temperature has a significant upward trend. Cycle Change analysis to lookat，Issyk-Kul Basin each represent station average annual precipitation exists periodic9a，the annual average temperature of4~5a main cycle. Display multiple time scale correlationbetween lake level and climate factors，the level of the lake and the annual averageprecipitation in positive correlation，the average temperature mountain mainly positivecorrelation， and plain area significantly negative correlation.(3)1961~2012years，the annual average water level showed a significant decreasingtrend of Baghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul. Among them，before the mid of1980s，the two Lakeswater level changes trend in pretty much the same， steady decline; After1990s，the waterlevel fluctuations in Baghrash Lake are more frequently in Issyk-Kul，has experienced a rapidrise and fall process， and the yearly average water level of Issyk-Kul is more stable than theBaghrash Lake. Wavelet analysis results show that the yearly average water level change ofBaghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul have the18a and22a primary cycles respectively. Averageannual water level difference of the primary cycle in two lakes，and lake area，climate，hydrology，natural human，and the lake itself features. The predicted result from the changetrend of water level of the future，the water level of Baghrash Lake future period of timecontinue to decline，Issyk-Kul water level continues to rise. (4) Issyk-Kul mountain and plain areas the average annual precipitation more thanBaghrash lake，and the annual average temperature is lower than the Baghrash Lake; Theannual average precipitation and average temperature of the rate of change of Baghrash LakeBasin is biger than the Issyk-Kul. Baghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul each station show that theannual average precipitation almost did not have any significant upward trend，while theaverage annual temperature is significantly raising trend. This indicated that the two lakes inthe basin precipitation not have obviously the trend of escalation in the recent50years，butthe annual mean temperature trend of escalation quite is obvious. Climatic elements periodicvariation shows that Issyk-Kul basin stand annual average precipitation period is greater thanthe Baghrash Lake，and average annual temperature cycle between4~7a. From the crosswavelet spectrum test，nearly50a to water level of Baghrash Lake and precipitation indifferent time scales of mountain mainly positively correlated negatively related to otherregions，which reflects the change in precipitation to the lake level change contribution rate ishigher than plain areas. Issyk-Kul water level and precipitation is mainly positivecorrelation.Baghrash Lake and Issyk-Kul，their average annual temperatures in the plain andlake water level are significant negative correlation，while in mountain areas there issignificant positive correlation.