Interannual Variability And Prediction Of Sea Level In Fujian Coastal Ocean And Risk Assessment

In this study, sea level records from4tidal gauges along Fu Jian province are used to analyze the regional sea level variability. By using the spectral method, we obtained the mean sea level rising trend and constructed sea level changemodel for each tidal station, we predicted the sea level rising rate for Fu Jiang coastal oceans in the next50years. In recent decades, the rate of sea level rise is0.17cm/a in Fu Jiang coastal oceans last, the main low-frequency period ofnonlinear variation is8~17year, high-frequency period is2year. The averagerate of sea level rise is0.17cm/year from2006to2056, fujian coastal sea levelwill rise12cm, xiamen stations will rise16.9cm, dongshan stations will rise6.4cm,by compare the2005’s and the2056’s. The trend of the annual averageincreasing rise in sea level is not exist, there is little variation inthe sea level rising rate for Fu Jiang coastal oceans in the next50years.Base onthe characteristics of fujian sea level variation, we propose:（1）strengthening the land subsidence monitoring，control building height, reducethe ground subsidence rate, reduce the rising sea levels influence area, ensurecoastal social and economic sustainable development；（2）The relevantdepartments should pay special attention severe high water level fromSeptember to November,when typhoon storm surge happen frequently andastronomic tide is higher than other season,especially when storm surgesuperpose srping tide.(3) When the sea levels rising, the distance and area ofthe seawater intrusion and soil salinization grow， fujian province should makefull use of the abundant rainfall，make good use of the water resources.(4)According to the 《regulation for collection and investigation of marine disasterrisk zoning data》，we shoud assess the potential risk of rising sea levelszoning of rising sea levels in fujian coastal areas, provides the foundation fordevelopment planning for coastal areas, Marine disaster prevention andmitigation. In this paper, we master the discipline of marine disaster in Xiamencoastal sea,by collecting and investigating, identify the field of marine disasterrisk zone,identify the key protection region,carry out the risk assessment andzoning of sea level rise in Xiamen.