"The Structure Inducement Effect" And The Long-term Dynamic Equilibrium Model In The Economic Growth Of China

How to realize a high speed growth of one nation's economy and meet the maximum welfare of its people is always an important topic which aroused multitudinous economist to discuss, and it is also the ultimate objective of its government to pursue persistently. Although our country's economy has continued a high speed growth more than 20 years, it has brought many problems such as environment pollution, resources overdrawing, unemployment rate rising and a deepening gap between the rich and the poor etc. That is, our country has appeared "a growth without development". With a gradual expanding of economic output, the traditional industrial structure pattern needs to be readjusted and optimized, in another word, the industrial structure pattern which adapts to the persistent extensive-economic-growth-way has terminated. Therefore, seeking the inner link mechanism and the development tendency between the industrial structure and the economy growth of our country to realize the long-term sustainable development is of great importance in both theoretical and practical significance.The connection between the industrial structure and the economic growth is always an important article that multitudinous scholars have been paying attention to. They has constructed different theoretical systems using different analytical methods. For example , W.Rostow considered that the growth of economy was aroused by leading industry, and industrial structure took a very important role in the economy growth ; H.Chenery considered that industrial structure and economy growth had a bidirectional causal relation; However, the most influencing theory was brought forward by S·Kuznets, who considered that it was economic growth which caused the variance of industrial structure advancement, etc.According to cointegration theory and Granger causality theory, this paper, based on the summary of multitudinous scholars'research literature, carries a positive analysis to the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth, using the time serial data from 1978 to 2003 by. The primary conclusions are as follows:First, the growth of per GDP is not Granger reason for the industrial structure advancement, the advancement process of industrial structure is not brought by the high speed economic growth, which denies the income...