Simulation Research Of Nontradable Shares Reform Based On Game Analysis

China's stock market is called "policy market" because of its immaturity. China Securities Regulatory Commission started the nontradable shares reform in 2004. From then on, this reform has become the hot pot in China capital market research.Santa Fe Institute in America created its Artificial Stock Market in 80th, last century, which was using computer to simulate the real stock market.After a lot of paper reading and reality investigation, this work propounded the idea of study China's nontradable shares reform by using this artificial stock market model. Based on Linux platform, Swarm library, Objective-C language and Tcl script language, this paper explored the effect of trading restriction and nontradable shares circulation on investors under a game analysis framework and reached several conclusions:1. The result shows that such kind of market design like trading restriction is helpful for investors to establish their rational expectations.2. Under the trading restriction design, our simulation experiment of nontradable shares' circulation shows that: A) for those stable shares with very good fundamental value, under the pressure of a small amount of inputted shares, 'rational investors' still stick to the fundamental analysis;B) while the market uncertainty increased, the advantage of technical analysis increases;as the reform inputs a lot of uncertainty into the market, both fundamental analysis and technical analysis show their reasonableness;C) for those risky shares with worse fundamental value, which are normally marked with a high share- presenting ratio, technical analysis is fairly risky, so 'rational investors' would prefer to stick to the fundamental analysis.