Value Stock Price Based On A Synthesize Estimation Model

During the process of stock investment, we can find out the right stocks that fit the requirement of investors and find out which stocks has less risk, more earnings and mobility. Through investment analyses, we can avoid investment risk. We have three ways to analysis stocks, one is fundamental analysis through intrinsic stock value, the other is technical analysis. The former based on economic, finance and investment theory, the later based on the rules of stock market itself, the third based on an effective information system . No matter which way we select to analysis, the relationship between analysis and estimation price of a stock is important in investment. Price estimation has become more and more important in social science. In order to put factors that affect the stock price into a model, we are influence by capital asset pricing model, we expound a synthesize factor stock price estimation model (an all-factor-affect stock price estimation model), introduce theory of the model, show the way to use the model and illustrate its availability by examples.In this article, we introduce relative knowledge of price estimation, including stock value and stock price, stock earnings and stock risk, and the process of stock price estimation. We also introduce some popular model of price estimation such as present value model, discounted cash flow approach model and capital pricing model, then We expound a synthesize factor model price estimation model, the model based on fundamental analysis, put many factors that affect stock price into the model, come into a index of all-factor, obtain a result of stock price. Through the model, we can avoid the limitation of a factor only. In the dissertation, we puteveryday index, everyday stock price, stock earnings etc. into the model, make use of computer to calculate, get a result by SPSS, S-SPLUS. When we get the result, we can judge the tendency of the price of a stock. Moreover, we select some typical stocks that represent other stocks in some trade. Furthermore, we discuss the amelioration of the model. In a word, the a synthesize-factor-affect stock price estimation model can help us find a way to select a stock with more reciprocation.