Research Of R&D Investment Decision On Option Games

Traditional investment decision methods can't properly deal with the uncertainty, irreversibility and competition of R&D (research and development) project, and they lead to error decisions. According to the characteristics of R&D project, the paper discusses how to carry out the investment decision of R&D project with the option and the option games. The paper analyzes the unapplied of traditional investment decision methods and the superiority of the option and the option games, the option characteristics and the games characteristics of R&D project, studies the applicability of the option under the conditions of monopoly and the applicability of the option games under the conditions of competition.This dissertation consists of five chapters. In Chapter 1, the paper discusses the predicament of traditional investment decision methods, analyzes the principle of these methods, and crosswise compares the advantage and disadvantage of the methods. In Chapter 2, the paper presents the basic types and the charge models of option, reveals the limitations of the charge models, and draws into the games theory, approaches it combining the option. In Chapter 3, reveals the natural character of R&D project and the option and games characteristics, deeply compares the defect of traditional investment decision methods to do with the characteristics, and stresses the superiority of the option games. In Chapter 4, discusses the investment decision of R&D project under monopoly on option, introduces firstly the theory base, then the establishment of the model and lastly the figures computing and the result analyzing. In Chapter 5, discusses the investment decision of R&D project under competition on option games, introduces firstly the theory base, then the establishment of the model and lastly the figures computing and the result analyzing.By the above five parts, we know the option and the option games are applicable to the investment decision of R&D project. This dissertation provides a brand-new theory and application framework for the investment decision of R&D project, which thetraditional investment decision methods can't do. But the research and application of the new method is not mature, we have to do deep research on it in future.