The Empirical Analysis Of Financial Asset Bubble's Measurement

This article in the digestion and in the absorption correlation research results foundation, has carried on the quite detailed analysis and the research to the financial asset bubble question. The full text altogether divides into four chapters.First chapter mainly elaborated the financial asset bubble theory and the related research literature summary. Has first been clear about the concepts of the financial asset and the financial asset bubble; Further has made the introduction to the financial asset bubble classification and the condition and factor which the financial bubble produces. Based on it is the financial bubble research literature summary, including financial bubble research history, present situation as well as research achievement and insufficiency.In the second chapter review history occurs important financial asset bubble event. After has analyzed the commodity bubble and the financial asset bubble's difference, collapsed the history to 20th century 30's New York stock market's collapse and the 90's Japan finance bubble to make the brief narration.Third chapter is to the financial asset bubble weight and the empirical analysis. In financial asset bubble measure method, the CAPM is more importantly. But the author mainly from analyzes the multitudinous reflection finance bubble the target to embark, the utilization principal components analysis method screens the best variable subset from the multitudinous target, again to whether hypothesized has the financial bubble to be supposed the variable, the best variable subset to make the Logistic regression analysis as the dependent variable, the regression result may calculate the probability of financial bubble crisis. With the regression equation which obtains comes to the Mexico 90's financial bubble to carry on the examination.Fourth chapter is to research the financial property main constituent: the stock, the bond and the currency corresponding markets'bubble risk guard and the countermeasure. As a master paper, the author thought this article the main contribution and the innovation manifests in following several aspects: The probability which occurred to "the financial bubble" has carried on the forecast using the more reasonable measurement analysis method; Meanwhile provides in the quantity measure for the prevention of financial bubble risk.