| Since 1990s,especially Southeast Asia finance crisis, a lot of scholars have paid attentionto the exchange rate of RMB .One of the primary concerns in China is RMB exchange ratetendency. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has quite an effect on our country'simport-export trade, investment and other economical variables. Real exchange rate the mostmain price target when a country is engaged in the international economy activity, it hadreflected this country's relatively international competitive power level, and has importantinfluence on its international payment balance condition and the domestic macroscopiceconomic activity.This article takes RMB real exchange rate as the research object, at first it explores realexchange rate theoretically, and has pointed out the relation and difference between realexchange rate and Purchasing-Power Parity emphatically. And then it calculates the level ofRMB real exchange rate, RMB tradable real exchange rate and RMB interior real exchangerate from 1978 to 2003, RMB real exchange rate and RMB tradable real exchange ratedepreciating together, but RMB interior real exchange rate appreciating. And it confirms threestructure relations by using Cointegration Test . Inducing the characteristic of RMB realexchange rate's internal structure, it discoveries that RMB real exchange rate and RMBtradable real exchange rate have changed uniformly, but departed from RMB interior realexchange rate's adjustment direction, RMB internal real exchange rate's elasticity coefficientis smaller than USA interior real exchange rate's elasticity coefficient. At last, after analyzingthe fluctuation of RMB real exchange rate preliminarily, this article proves and analyzes thepossible factor that affected RMB real exchange rate according to Balassa——SamuelsonEffects. It draws the conclusion: The enhancement of China relative labor productivity canbring the RMB real exchange rate rising , but Balassa——Samuelson Effects cannot use forexplaining change of RMB real exchange rate. |
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