The Research On Forecasting System Of MTS Enterprise

The fierce competition in the market gives the enterprise a hard-won opportunity and flinty challenge. The enterprise must shorten delivery time, improve quality and service and reduce cost to satisfy the target market. So it should have the ability of scientific forecast and quick response to meet the uncertain demand. The thesis mainly research on the forecasting system of make to stock enterprise based on the air-condition industry. Firstly, it analyses the relationship between forecasting and MRP plan levels, then emphasizes the important of the forecasting in MTS enterprise. Secondly, it construes the current application status of the forecasting system and point out the shortage of its application. The thesis brings forward an integrated forecasting system. The system not just introduces the forecast method and its result, but also illuminates the operation based on the perfect system. It consists of methods level and application level. The methods level covers the forecasting ensures system, the forecasting method system and the influencing factor. According to the main three outputs, which consist of annual gross forecast, the specification-oriented gross forecast and the regional specification-oriented gross forecast, the application level can carry out the purchase programming, planning and inventory controlling. The forecasting system can more reflect the enterprise's whole operation than any other forecasting system. The thesis gives a detailed explanation to the forecasting system. And present the principle on how to choose the forecasting method. Then it brings forward the combined forecasting system and the forecasting ensures system. Finally, it gives some example to demonstrate the operation model, such as purchase programming, order batching strategy and inventory controlling, based on the forecasting system.