Theoretical And Empirical Analysis On Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation

The 1997 Southeastern Asia Financial Crisis had immense impact on southeastern Asian countries, and gave these countries painful lessons. Against the macro background of economic globalization and regional economic integration, strengthening the economic cooperation among eastern Asian countries and developing Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation is a general trend. Domestic and foreign researchers have done a great deal of in-depth studies on Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation and drawn a lot of constructive conclusions, but these studies still exist some defects. To make up these defects, this dissertation will give Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation both a theoretical and an empirical analysis by using the Theory of Optimum Currency Area (OCA) and Logit regression model.The first part will give the OCA a brief introduction, and then comparatively analyze certain critical indices between the eastern Asia and the pre-monetary integration European Union on a series of determining criterion of OCA, which leads to the conclusion that the eastern Asian have basically qualified for the monetary cooperation. The following part will introduce the Logit regression model at first. And then, Using the Logit regression model combine a variety of qualitative and quantitive factors that affect Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation for a regression analysis. Through the regression analysis, we can get the factors which have significant regressive effects. And then we will analyze the direction and strength of these factors' affect to Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation, and thereafter analyze theirs marginal effect. In this part, our focus is to analyze the qualitative factors' impacting on Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation. The last part will analyze the qualitative factors that affect the China's participation in Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation on the basis of the actual case in China. It will also point out China's deficiency on these aspects and analyze the reasons, and then suggest how China should improve these qualitative factors in order to make China suit for participating in the cooperation. Ultimately, the dissertation will present some policy suggestions for China to participate in Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation.The main method innovation of the dissertation is to combine a variety of qualitative and quantitive indices together for Logit regression analysis, and thus amends the irrelevant state between the qualitative and quantitive analysis of the current domestic and foreign research on Eastern Asia Monetary Cooperation.