Research On Financial Early-warning System Of Chinese Maritime Listed Company

This dissertation is designed to establish a set of financial early-warning system for maritime listed company in China. The whole paper is divided into introduction, main body and conclusion, in which the main body includes four chapters.Chapter one briefly reviews the history and current research situation of financial early-warning in China and abroad. On the basis of reference and compare with prehuman study, the paper conceives the break-through point of model -making in the thesis. —firstly, there is great difference in different kind of enterprises and different industries, and different trades need different standard value, so it is great necessary to carry through study according to industries; second, The defects of quantitative early-warning model, such as time lag and limited information supply, result to the necessity of qualitative study; Then most targets of financial early-warning is to avoid meeting ST or *ST currently, but the author believes that is only the basic object, the most important is how to optimize the value of enterprise. For this, any action which impairs enterprise' value should be alarmed timely, including any such kind of omen. Lastly, the author tries to have break-through in the selecting of warning index and weight number in quantitative modeling.Chapter two focuses on analysis of alarm source, which is the root of causing the situation of warning. When it comes to enterprise, it refers to analysis of all kind of risks the enterprise is facing. The thesis first analyzes the characteristics of shipping industry, and then analyzes the risk of listed shipping company in China from industry aspect and internal control while taking eight shipping listed company's operation and Qiong Nan Yang company's failure as example, industry aspect focuses on all kind of risks in shipping fields, and internal control includes investment control, financing control and operating control. To qualitative warningmodeling and quantitative early-warning model, alarm source is the same, but alarm symptom is different. For qualitative warning modeling, it is non-qualitative, but the symptom of quantitative early-warning is unusual financial index. So the alarm source analysis is the necessary beginning of qualitative warning modeling and quantitative early-warning model.Chapter three: Finance situation of a company in risk or danger may go through coterminous seedtime, which is Incubation period, outbreak period, and deteriorating period. Different period have different symptoms. On the basis of risk analysis of listed shipping company in China , different alarm symptoms in different periods are designed, With the help of management grade method I try to turn non-qualitative elements into qualitative one, therefore, the financial qualitative warning model for listed shipping company in China is established. Chapter four mainly introduces the process of establishing qualitative warning modeling and gives out demonstration inspection, from the select of financial warning index, the confirmation of weight number, the conversion of different index, the degree of alarm, then to the model's establishment. During the process of establishing the model, the author avoids using pure mathematics. On the basis of 8 maritime listed company1 financial index for 3 years in succession, and the characteristics of shipping industry, the paper adopts relativity analytical method to select financial index, uses AHP and Delphi to give weight numbers, and through utility coefficient method to realize conversion between different financial index. Then a maritime listed company1 quantitative early-warning model is built in the end, At last combining to a COSCO shipping company, the author introduces how to put the model into practice, and gives quantitative demonstration inspection to Tianjin and Ningbo shipping company so as to find out the model established in this paper is feasible.