Studying Of The Impact Of The Price Of Petroleum On National Economy And Safe System Of Petroleum

The petroleum is non-renewable and rare resources, is strategic materials that are related to national economy revitalize and national economic security. With the development of economy, the demand of our country for petroleum is larger and larger, degree of depending on import is higher and higher, the net import volume of petroleum of our country has exceeded Japan in 2003.The petroleum industry belongs to the upper industry, The fluctuation of the price of petroleum will exert an influence on other departments of national economy, studying of price of petroleum will contribute to reducing the impact of the price of petroleum on our national economy.Thesis have analyzed a great deal of influence factors of the price of petroleum, pointing out that the supply-demand relationship change of the world petroleum is the main factor that the price of petroleum fluctuates; Petroleum strategic reserves and the stock and price of petroleum have obvious dependence; The social political relation of economy is the main reason that sudden change of the price of petroleum takes place in a short time.The thesis has carried on systematic analysis to the dependence of the oil demand and safety and the price of petroleum, setting up the petroleum requirement forecasting model based on grey systematic theory, predicting the petroleum demand of our country.The thesis has carried on network analysis to the effect of involving of the price of petroleum on national economy correctly, setting up influences models of the price of petroleum based on analytical method of input and output, using models to carry on real example analysis of the impact of the crude oil price on other departments of national economy; Setting up sensitiveness the index system of impact of oil price on China economic development, and has carried on real example analysis; setting up the safe security system of Chinese petroleum .Finally, the thesis has proposed setting up petroleum strategic reserves, utilizing the petroleum forward market, setting up protective screen of the risk's purchase the, utilizing financial derivative , setting up risk warning system early , strengthening energy-conserving technical research , etc. proposing suggestion of reducing petroleum price risk our country.