Total Logistics Costs Modeling And Application Based On Chaotic Dynamics

Contemporary logistics is a new systematic concept, so that theories and methods of modern system science are properly used for the research of logistics system. Since logistics system is a complicated system, nonlinear dynamics is naturely used for such complicated system research. Researches show that besides those behaviors such as stable equilibrium ,periodic oscillation and unstable divergence etc., economic system may have deterministic chaos, called economic chaos. This paper, based on ecomonic chaos theory, claimes that the dynamic movement of total logistics costs is decided by its endogenous randomness, and points out a dynamic model for total logistics costs. The main works in this paper: (1) Deducing out a dynamic model of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) from traditional economic model; (2) Finding out a parameter to connect GDP with TLC (total logistics costs), the latter will be discussed in detail; (3) Setting up the dynamic model of TLC; (4) The application research on the logistics dynamic model; (5) Calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent and complexity of the time series. Conclusions: (1) It points out that the dynamic movement of TLC is decided by its endogenous randomness; (2) It deduces a dynamic model of TLC, the correctness of which is tested by an application research. (3) It's a new way to analyze logistics economic system, and give some useful suggestions for logistics management based on the analysis of the dynamic mode.