Research On Reliability Of Multimodal Transportation Based On Stochastic Petri Nets

With the role of the Multimodal transport system being more and more important, the study on the reliability of Multimodal transport system is very necessary.At first, this thesis finds out the basic unreliable facts and defined the system's compositions. The Multimodal transportation is a dynamic system with some repaired facts. The definition about the reliability of the Multimodal transportation is created and four fault-Modules witch make up the system are described. If ignores the system could be repaired will get an inconsistent solutions.With the definite quantitative determination and qualitative analysis by fault tree on the reliability of the Multimodal transportation system, this thesis brings the Stochastic Petri Net method to improve the applicability of the fault tree. To improve the method, the Stochastic Petri Net integrates the fault tree method to analyze the problem. And then, the transformation of the Petri Status tree is described. At last, calculates the system's reliability by Markov and studies on a reliability program.Based on the Stochastic Petri Net method's dynamic performance, the results can more accurately reflect the true state of system. In solving the reliability of the results, this thesis compares the reliability by two methods calculated. Through the analysis of the results of the real examples, using Stochastic Petri Net method to evaluate of the reliability of the system is more rational and efficient.