Study On Combined Forecast And The Design And Development Of Software System

The paper analyse and arrange the combined forecasts comprehensively in different side, and point out the development trend in the combination forecasts. Two optimal rules is discussed mostly, whose theory and method is more perfect. The two optimal rules is minimum sum of error square and minimum sum of error absolute value. Aiming at the former, this paper analyse the trait and defect all methods, and research linear programming arithmetic deeply. This method is proved to be simple and useful through example. This paper develop the combination forecasting software, and which is used to forecast total animal husbandry value and have a well effect. All work is accounted concretely as follow:The first, based on the optimal rule of minimum sum of error square, analyse all methods to solve the optimal weight and point out the trait and defect of all methods. Aimed at this linear programming arithmetic of combination forecasting, there are not material solution. The second, based on Kuhn-Tucker condition, the paper transform the combination forecasting model into linear programming model. And give material method firstly. The third, the linear programming model has many artificial variable, which add the arithmetic's complication. Aimed at this problem, the paper give this arithmetic's simplex method to drop the complication. This arithmetic is proved to be simple and functional through example. This method is analytic method, which is more simply and applied and easy to write program than other analytic method. The forth, the paper develop combination forecasting software system, which include seven common forecast methods, and two common combination forecasting methods. This software has four function model:(1) to input survey value data.(2)to use single method to forecast.(3)to use combined model to fit.(4) combination forecasting. The software has many functions and characteristics: (1) powerful numerical calculation ability. There are two solutions: analytic result and numerical result.(2)there are powerful graph analysis function: survey value and fitting value of single model and combined model can be displayed on the same figure at the same time.(3)the calculating results(analyzing result) can be done with to use three methods:①to display directly.②to saved in files.③to be printed directly. The fifth, using software to forecast total animal husbandry value and has good effect.