Researches On Bayesian Approach For Storage Reliability Assessment Of Ammunition System In Small Sample Circumstances And Design Of Its Application Software

Ammunition is one important part of weapon system and a crucial factor to form military battle effectiveness. Considering of the long-period stored and one-time expended characteristics of ammunition, it is significant to study storage reliability assessment of ammunition. The thesis studies the storage reliability assessment of ammunition in small sample experiment circumstances. The main work can be concluded as follows.Firstly, based on the reliability theory, the concept of ammunition storage reliability is discussed, and the related parameters are determined. Moreover, by analyzing the failure mechanism of stored ammunition in detail, the main circumstance factors that affect the function of ammunition are summarized. Meanwhile, the principle, method, and category of ammunition storage life tests are introduced.Secondly, according to the characteristics of tests data of ammunition storage reliability, a Bayesian storage reliability assessment method of ammunition component is put forward. Based on the ammunition storage reliability data in normal stress environment, different tests data of variant storage environment are converted by environment factors. The possible phenomenon that the tests data are in inverse order is pretreated with Bayes theory and the reliability of known storage time point is figured out. Further, the storage life distribution of ammunition could be gotten by type curve method, in order to make right evaluation and prediction of the Storage reliability. Considering of the step-stress accelerated life tests of ammunition component, one new statistical processing method of tests data is presented, which conducts data processing at each test stress level by Powell method. Based on the above analysis, a Bayesian multi-information fusing approach to assessing the storage reliability of ammunition component is presented.Thirdly, based on the storage reliability evaluation of ammunition component and the reliability relation model of ammunition system, a new method of ammunition system storage reliability assessment is put forward. The method integrates the reliability information of ammunition components by the means of moment equivalent, and evaluates the ammunition system storage reliability with Bayesian multi-information fusing approach.Lastly, a lot of programming has been done to develop the software of storage reliability assessment of ammunition system in small sample circumstances. Nowadays, the software is being used by some equipment departments of PLA and works well.