Study On The Prosperity Monitor And Early Warning System Of Guizhou's Economy

As we all know, economy does not develop steadily and directly. In fact, it rises in cycle, that is, with prosperity and depression by turns. When economy fluctuates greatly or slacks badly, crisis appears and it brings losses even disasters to the economy. Economic prosperity monitor and prewarning means that the theories and methods on economic monitor, economic evaluation, economic forecasting and policy selection are studied on the basis of economics periodic fluctuation -one special economic.In this paper, the history of development of prewarning system of economics is retrospected. And the methods of prewarning which are used are introduced and analyzed, on the basis of theoretical analysis and real practice, a quantitative method for economy prewarning indicator screening-economical cycle index, is put forward.Taking the macrocosm operation of Guizhou Province's economy as an example for practical use of this method, prewarning indicators were screened by economical cycle index, and the prosperity signal system of Guizhou Province's economy is constructed. With the principle that function module separates from data,the system consists of data layer,administration layer,application layer,and the detail description of all the levels and their sub-function modules.At last,it utilizes the economy prewarning theory to analyze the economy development in Guizhou Province,and points the defects,in hope of being helpful to the work of Guizhou Province' s economy prewarning both in theory and in practice.