Predictive Validity Of English Simulated Tests For Senior III Students

Predictive validity is a relatively new topic in the study of language testing. Since the 1950s it has attracted more and more attention of language test researchers. Beginning with a review of the relationship of language teaching and testing as well as the theory of validity and predictive validity, the study aims to investigate predictive validity on language testing.Based on the theory of predictive validity, the purpose of the study is to investigate predictive validity of the simulated NMET (National Matriculation English Test) for the senior III students,by analyzing the scores on the simulated NMET and the NMET, checking if they serve the specific purpose of predicting. The study results will be of great value to improve the simulation test quality and to improve senior English teaching and learning. The methodologies introduced in previous empirical studies on predictive validity are adopted to study the Simulated NMET at present.In this study, two questions need to be answered:1) How well do the English scores on the simulated NMET predict the scores on the NMET?2) What factors influence the accurate/inaccurate prediction?To answer the questions, the author collects data from the simulated NMET taken by senior III candidates in a key school in Luoyang, all of whom took the NMET in June 7, 2006. Compared to the NMET, the correlation analysis is conducted.The findings are listed as follows:First, the major finding of the research is that the simulated NMET can well predict the students'performance on the NMET. The correlation coefficients are statistically significant.Second, the research also indicates that predictive validity of the simulated tests is greatly influenced by the test quality. The study also helps us realize that the simulated NMET still remains to be improved, such as choosing the appropriate reading materials, language knowledge tested, etc. Therefore, the decision based on the simulated NMET should be carefully made.The research uses data analysis and paper analysis, backed up by literature analysis and teacher interview.