Statistical Analysis Of The Relation Between Population Growth And Production Of Grain

The research of the relation between population growth and production of grain is the important content of the national economic development, especially the agricultural sustainable development. People are owners of the means of production, and undoubtedly the decisive factor of promoting social progress. However, people are consumers of means of livelihood in our society. Excessive population will cause the negative effect on politics, economy and culture. The grain which is the most basic means of livelihood among them is the problem that a lot of countries have failed to solve for many years. Our country is a populous developing country. Though the land is vast and resources are abundant, because of per capita cultivated land less, agricultural producing relatively lagging behind and population growth impacting of inertia, grain-production faces the enormous pressure. So, analysis with the relation between the production of grain and the population growth in our country and scientific prediction to people's growth trend and grain yield in the future have extremely strong realistic meanings.The analysis of the relation between population growth and production of grain for our country is based on historical materials .This text introduces the course of the population and grain-production of our country in detail, analyses the match state of population growth and grain yield, gets the basic conclusion that the population and the increasing grain yield of our country accorded with sustainable development generally after the New China constructed. According to the historical data of bore the population of our country's land, the article analyses that the remarkable factors which are influenced the weight bore population of the grain field in our country are per unit area yield of grain, per capita GDP and per capita occupancy volume of grain. Meanwhile, the text sets up the index system which is appraised the harmonious state of the development between population and grain-production, carries on scientific appraisal to the state of every area of our country.The scientific predictions of population and grain yield in the future are bases of making the corresponding macro economic policy .According to the time array of population, the text predicts the population adopting the curve predict model of Logistic and Grey predict model respectively in some future time .At the same time, the text realizes the unification of the two predict results by the error betweenprediction and reality. Owing to a lot of uncertain factors influencing the grain yield, its prediction has always been a difficult point. According to the grain yield time array of our country, the text adopts the model which is combined with smooth model of the index, grey long-term forecast model and incomplete difference revising level model to scientifically predict the grain yield of our country. As the above-mentioned predict results of the population and the grain yield, according to the use of grain standard in the life of the well-to-do society, the text concludes that the most suitable average annual rate of the grain yield of our country is 1.4%.Finally, according to the analysis of the real example on the relation between population and grain production, the text puts forward some feasible measures which we will be taken to keep the harmony development for offering reference to make policy in macroeconomic of our country.