Analysis Of Development Trend And Forecast On Track And Field Results In National Games

To the average of the top three scores , the average of the top three levels and the forecast values of the 12th National Games as research subjects, Using literature data, comparative analysis, mathematical statistics and gray prediction method analysis the development trend and forecast on Track and Field Results in National Games. Through data processing and statistics, two tables and three maps could show the development trend of the average of the top three scores and the average of the top three levels. They are the development coefficient table, progressive coefficient table, the chain dynamic map, the fixed base dynamic map and level dynamic map, then analysis them Correspondingly. Through the use of Grey GM (1, 1) model, the paper will predict the 12th National Games athletics results.two papers and threes maps will show up the achievements of each stage of Track and Field Development and the dynamic process of development clearly, conducive to understanding the development of the National Track and Field. Standard sports competition scoring percentile method are calculated for the level of each item. This method not only can be drawn the level of each item in the world, different projects can also have common measure. The forecast of Games track and field results in the 12th National is conducive to establish the main direction of Sports and arrange training programs for coaches and athletes.Prediction of the Twelfth National Games Show: (1) Men's Track and Field results have increased. Such as 400m Field, 800m,10000m, 3000m Barrier, 20km Race Walking, 50km Race Walking, Long Jump, Triple Jump, Pole Vault, Shot Put, Hammer Throw, Decathlon.(2) Men's Track and Field results have declined. Such as 100m,200m,400m, 110m Field, 1500m,5000m, Marathon, High jump, Discus, Javelin.(3) Women's Track and Field results have increased. Such as 10000m, High jump, Long jump, Pole Vault, Shot Put, Discus, Hammer Throw.(4) Women's Track and Field results have declined. Such as 100m,200m,400m, 100m field,400m field, 800m,1500m,5000m, 20km Race Walking, Marathon, Triple Jump, Javelin, Heptathlon. Should be noted that predicted results only reflect the Possible values of sports performance.The analysis and research of the two tables and three maps find that :(1) During 1-4 sessions of Track and Field sprint and hurdles but 400m hurdles overall downward trend, While the ultra-long haul long-distance projects but 1500mare rising, Field events and the all round performance are enhanced to varying degrees. During 5-7 sessions, the track and field results but Men's 1500m and men's pole vault have greatly improved in general. During 8-11 sessions track events In addition to 110m field , Men's 800m, Men's 10000m, Men's 20km and 50km race walking have increased, the rest has declined; Men's field events but high jump and discus the project results are rising, while the women's field events but pole vault are falling; Decathlon up in All-around categories of projects, Heptathlon down; Particular note is that: During 8-11 sessions Women's track and field results in addition to pole vault are dropped, the results are the rise in most of the Men's.(2) During 5-7 sessions and 8-11 sessions, 110m field, men's 10000m and men's 20km Race Walking is the increase in the overall results. Men's 800m, men's long jump, men's triple jump, men's shot put and men's javelin are rising in three stages. Field events but men's pole vault rise in the first two stages. The above results reflect the project a good development momentum. man's 1500m in three stages downward in the development of poor posture. (3) in three phases, 1-4 sessions results volatile.(4) Development of field events is in general better; In the speed class and throwing class projects, development of women's achievements is better than men's; the stability of Throwing is worse; In the sprint class project, in the long-distance projects and throwing events, the stability of Achievements the women's events is worse.(5)In 5-7 sessions track and field results have greatly improved; Men's events in the 100m, 110m field, 400m, javelin, discus, hammer throw, and women's events in 100m, 800m, 1500m, are in the fall in 8-11 sessions. Authorities need to attract the attention; 5-7 sessions Track and Field project through the full development, 8-11 sessions in their prime time. (6) The level of women's long-distance projects, ultra long-range project, men's 110m field is relatively high, their highest level are in more than 96. The level of Throwing but is relatively low, their highest level are in less than 88.