Realistic Theory On Causes Of War: Reflection And Explanation

The issue on war is a core topic in intemational relations study.The western IRS circles presents a large number of answers to it,basically realistic school.So far,many works about the causes of war have been published.And there are mainly two research paths:one is the path from rational anticipation,including the current main-stream theories on war,such as traditional humanity theory,structural theory by Kenneth Waltz,hegemonic stability theory by Robert Gilpin,and power transition theory by A.F.K. Organski etc,these theories hold the view that variables like power desire,the international power distribution and the offensive/defensive balance are the primary causes of war,they all can be completely cognized and anticipated,the essence of war is independent of human perception.Along the path,perception of person as decision-maker is only the relay between war and objective causes;the other is the path from human perception,presented by Robert Jervis's perception theory and Stephen M.Walt's balance of threat theory,they believe that the mental action of the decision-maker is the leading element bringing about the security dilemma,power threat is not always true,misperception during the decisiong-making process often happens,therefore gives rise to war.This thesis,combining theoretical summary with the historical survey,pointed out that on one hand,the current theories used many phrases sucn as causes,origins,roots and conditions when discussing the same issue about war,and so leaded to a cognitive confusion,on the other hand,they all chosed a one-way logic.War is not only decided by the paticular international situation,but also influenced by human perception,exactly,influenced by the interaction of environment and perception under the anarchic circumstances.On the basis of this,this paper first makes a general analysis about the four concepts above,aiming at forming a standard about concept-using,then uses the theory of reflectivity by George Soros to rethink the current theories,at last makes a conclusion that the causes of war can be well interpreted through theory of reflectivity,and that attempting to a one-element interpretation has cognitive deviation.