Research On Technical Risks Management Of Major Weapon Systems Acquisition

According PLA weapon acquisition practices, Major Weapon Systems, namely the MWS, refers to those weapon systems as missiles of all types, airplanes, battleships, disembarking vessels and assistant ships loading above 1,000 tons, tanks, armored cars, ground artilleries with their caliber larger than 85 millimeters, radars, sonar, director, transmitter-receiver with their power more than 15 watt, electronic confronting weapons, pontoons, engineering machines with their power more than 60,000 watt, automobiles, and army vessels. Achievement in realizing the MWS developing objects has a magnitude strategic significance to the stride-development of the PLA weapon systems. In allusion to technical risk (TR) that deeply effect the PLA Major Weapon Systems Acquisition Program (MWSAP) development, this thesis presents a lucubrate research made by the author and his contribution.(1) To overcome the limitation of conventional MWSAP technical risk managing methodsdesigned for the technical risk triggering events that have high probability and high impact, this research introduces the concept "dimension" and extends it into "multi-dimension". Moreover, this research develops a "Schedule Delay Valuation Model (SDVM)" and a 'Technical Risk Loss-Valuation Model(TRLVM)" to overcome the fundamental limitation regarding interpretation difficulty of dimensionless output.(2) This research puts forward a brand new concept of Technical Risk Breakdown Structure, namely the TRBS, based on traditional Work Breakdown Structure and risk identifying methods.(3) This research presents a systematic investigation of the TR diffusion system in MWSAP lifecycle. In succession, it introduces to the TR diffusion system a concept of "non-control diffusion", and brings forward its mathematic model. Then, it comes up with an exploration of the controllability of the TR diffusion process in MWSAP lifecycle by adopting an instinct image of "plait-tip".(4) This research endeavors to build a dynamic index family for MWSAP lifecycle TR management by integrating Concurrent Index(CI) and Expected Index(El) into the former built TRBS. Along with the evaluation of ability to managing TR in MWSAP lifecycle, namely the Management Ability Index(MAI); evaluation of worthiness to proper TR management, namely the Management Benefits Index(MBI), and evaluation of TR managing efficiency, this research presents a framework for MWSAP lifecycle TR dynamic management despite all that calling for further refinement.