Research On Convergence Of Economic Growth In HeBei Province

On the basis of the consumption that marginal return decreases progressively, the neo-classical economic growth theory has predicted the convergence of the economic growth, pointing out that backward country will catch up with the advanced country with a high rate of increase, which shows the effect of catching up with and surpassing. Since the 1990s, with professor Robert Barro as the representative, large quantities of American economists have proved the phenomena of absolute convergence and conditional convergence according to the data worldwide and data of specific countries, and given convincing explanations to the existence of economic disparity in the world, which has shown the enormous glamour of the theory. Scholars of our country began to use this theory in the late 1990s, and the samples were mainly concentrated on among provinces or among the three regions of the east, the middle and the west of China, while the time span of their studies mainly roots in the period after the reform and opening-up. All their achievements provide strong policy supports and reasonable suggestion to the narrowing of economic disparity among regions, maintain economic coordination and achieve the sustainable development. However, because of all sorts of reasons, there is still not many scholars researching on the specific province. Because of this, this thesis tries to use the theory of convergence to analyze the economic disparity among the 11 cities of Hebei Province. To keep the consistency of economic system as much as possible, samples begin from 1994, and prove separately the phenomenon of absolute convergence and conditional convergence. In the analysis of conditional convergence, there are altogether four controlling variables that affect stable state. The result is that the economy of Hebei presented the state of dispersing in the last 10 years, and the economic disparity between cities is widened progressively. Finally, the thesis makes a concrete analysis of the effects of such variables as industrial structure, human capital, government expenditure on the convergence, and puts forward the measures and suggestion that will narrow the economic disparity.