Choice Of The Monetary Policy Intermediary Target During Transformation Period In China

The research object of this text is in the choice problem of intermediary target of the monetary policy in China during transformation period. At first, measurability, controllability and controllability of money supply index M1 , M2 that this text has been investigated under our country's extant economic system, prove of our country existing money supply targeting monetary policy frame getting invalid. Then, with considering the experience or lesson in typical countries of inflation targeting in foundation , transition , and implement of monetary policy, I set up a transitional monetary policy frame which is suit of the conditions and economic development strategy of China ,and faces inflation targeting monetary policy frame wished by the country. At last some policy recommendations have been put forward for guaranteeing the validity of the policy conduction mechanism in the transitional monetary policy frame. In chapter one, I mainly made a brief instruction about the relevant theory how to chose a intermediary target of monetary policies. I firstly emphasized the important position of intermediary target of monetary policy in the monetary policy system, thinking choosing suitable intermediary target to help the monetary authorities to realize the final goal of the monetary policy with the monetary policy tools rationally, be the prerequisite guarantee of the validity in the conduction mechanism of the monetary policy. Secondly, in order to make the research that has an object in view to intermediary target of the monetary policy, I have introduced the conduction mechanism theory of the monetary policy and monetary policy tactics theory, for describing the monetary policy conduction mechanism environment and tactics environment, then established the theoretical foundation on which intermediary target is chosen according to the concrete conduction mechanism characteristics of one country. Finally , I have introduced exchange rate targeting , long-term interest rate targeting , monetary supply targeting and inflation targeting , and GDP targeting, separately. In Chapter two I have studied of the validity of monetary policy from current monetary supply measurability , controllability , relativity of target of our country, thinking the finance innovation and deepening having been weakening measurability and controllability .Meanwhile, I think that monetary supply target does not possess strong relevant relations with price-level, economic growth as same as the result of study of the real example of examining according to Grainger's cause and effect at the same time etc.. In chapter three, I firstly analyzed the reasons to the bad validity of conduction mechanism in China , including the independence of our country Central Bank , the insufficient development of money market , the lack of credit in our country banks system, etc. Then I research the substitutability of intermediary targets --Exchange rate , long-term interest rate and expectant inflation rate -- with compare: for the exchange rate , because of what our country implemented for a long time is " regular exchange rate policy ", under the situation that capital can flow freely in capital, if regard exchange rate as intermediary's goal , it is tantamount to give up the regulation and control of national economy of the monetary policy, which would aggravate national fluctuation of economy, weaken the potentiality of economic growth, So I think exchange rate not as the intermediary target of China's monetary policy in future; For the long-term interest rate, because the statistics range of the interest rate is narrow, name interest rate and true rate of interest is easy to produce deviate from each other and demands " interest rate high elasticity of monetary ", especially, as our country capital market development slow, interest rate conduct uncertainty to be heavy, unfavorable to monetary policy keep with economic consistency of operation conditions, So I think long-term interest rate also difficult to become the intermediary target of China's monetary po...