Studies On Prediction Financial Distress And Management In Chinese Firms

With the rapid development of the stock market in China, the listed firms grow inquantity and scale, the composition and operation of them getting better. Compare the listedfirms with the traditional enterprises or general companies, the listed firms have someadvantages, such as better achievement, bigger scale, stronger financing ability and expandingability, the listed firms have supreme vitality and developing potentialities in the modernmarket economy. More and more investors invest in stock market, not only the listed firms getdeficient money, but also investors get earning from the investment. But, some listed firmsplunge into financial distress because of some reason, their operating achievement decreaseyear after year, they were called "special treatment" companies because of abnormal financialposition, maybe they would be faced with the danger of with draw from the stock market. Ifthe listed firms plunge into financial distress, not only the investors and creditors would sufferfor it, but also the validity of the resource distribution would be affected. It is a subject of wide concern for investors, creditor and securities supervisory organs topredict the financial distress (FD) of the listed firms. Based on comprehensive, profoundinvestigation into present condition of the FD occurring to domestic listed firms and theestablished achievements in this domain both at home and abroad, the author combinesfinancial analysis theory with the findings of positivistic research, designates the special (ST)received by listed firms for their abnormal financial performance as the indicator of FD;predicts FD in domestic listed firms through employing a multi-logit regression analysismodel as well as publicly analysis financial data. By conducting experiments, we find a bestlogistic regression model with 6 variables. The error differentiation ratio is only 7.36 percentin one year basic financial data before the stock company is known as ST. It provides themarket participator and the management personnel with powerful information support topredict FD, evaluate the value of the securities investment, make credit decision, conductcredit risk management, and judge the operation achievements. On the basis of ample investigation, combing demonstration analysis with standardresearch, quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, the author tries to identify theproblems of FD. The drawbacks are as follows: Industrial structure unreasonable, lack rational,effective company administration structure, capital structure imperfect, lack keycompetitiveness, enterprise's mechanism transform incompletely etc. If these factors can'tchange, it will influence our country's development and economy of listed firms. The concreteimprovement countermeasures is: improve listing corporate structure, reforming the Ⅵ东北农业大学管理学硕士学位论文mechanism of management of the company, fostering the key competitiveness and good marketenvironment, strengthening the responsibility of the intermediary, enhancement investor'seducation etc. Postgraduate: Yu Huiyan Major: Agricultural Economic Management Supervisor: Prof.Sun changjiang...