Study On Precaution System Of Financial Crisis In Listed Company

Enterprises are threated by crisis in the fierce market competition now. If enterprise can't take precautions against the crisis in time , it will get into trouble. But people are not powerless in the face of such a predicament , the financial crisis can be predicted in advance.The financial situation of corporation is the integrate reflection of the corporation's management.At the same time the financial condition decide if the corporation can keep running.So the research of warning for corporate financial crisis is a key to the management of corporation. As the listed company whose financial data is easily collected widely influences. The article emphasizes on setting up financial crisis prediction model in listed companies. I hope it will be helpful to enhancing the corporation's management level.Based on the summarization to the research fruits of financial crisis abroad,this paper introduces the design, principle, functions and characteristic about prior warning of financial crisis.Has introduced the traditional theory,this paper analyses and evaluates those prediction models about financial crisis abroad after discussing the relationship between financial crisis and bankruptcy,the relationship between financial crisis and ST(special treasurement). At the part of empirical study,this paper chooses 100 A-stock industrious listed companies from Stock Exchange of Shanghai and Shenzhen as research samples(it defines "overdue debts"or "ST company" as "financial crisis corporation" and selects 50 companies with and 50 without financial crisis).Based on introducing the ratios of cash flow as prediction variables,it adopts the real financial data from 1998 to 2002 in listed company, makes use of single-variable t test to filter 17 possible variables in analysis and finally selects 10 remarkably distinguished financial rateses.Then this paper uses the multivariate statistical methods,including Multiple Discriminant Analysis and Principle Components Analysis to establish the two predicting models for financial crisis,and validate the two models of the desired results with date before 3 years.It is noted that the two models can get relatively accurate prediction,but the Multiple Discriminant Analysis Model is more precise,simple and vailable in practise than the Principle Components Analysis Model,which comprises more information by contrast.At last, this paper also carries on qualitative analysis to precaution system of financial crisis and discusses the daily control of the financial crisis of enterprise to set up a precaution system of financial crisis that includes qualitative anlysis and quantitative anlysis,supervises at any time and prediction model in the end of year.This paper is divided into six parts. In the first part, it introduces the research purpose and the present situation abroad. In the second part, it emphases on the qualitative analysis.it firstly introduces the design, principle, functions and characteristic about prior warning of financial crisis,secondly consults the index score comed from"state-run capital appraise by result achievement", and carries on qualitative analysis to precaution system of financial crisis.Based on the analysis of the relationship between financial crisis and bankrupt and of the relationship between financial crisis and ST, the understandability to financial crisis and the special reseach subject in this paper are put forward. In the third part, it analyses and evaluates those familiar prediction models after introducing the traditional theory of the financial crisis.In the fourth part,it uses Multiple Discriminant Analysis and Principle Components Analysis to separately establish the two predicting models for financial crisis,and validate the two models of the desired results with date before 3 years.In the fifth part,it discusses the application with precaution system of financial crisis,including the combination between the qualitative analysis systems and quantitative analysis systems in content,and combination between daily control of f...