Application Of Gray System To Forecasting Transferable Bond's Price

Transferable bond is a mixed finance product, which has common bond's and double's character and stock's derivation. So the value of transferable bond is very complex, which make it challenging to establish or forecast its price whether in theory or in practice. We have made a great progress in establishment of transferable bond's price. But we don't settle the problem of establishment and forecasting the price radically, because of the complexity of its structure and trade. So establishment and forecasting the price is still the stress and difficulty in the theory of fiance asset's price.Transferable bond is a mixed bond, which include of the characters of bond, stock and double. Its value shape is more complex than common stock, bond and double. In addition, investment double value of transferable bond is affected by price of A-stock and share transfers, residual period, fluctuation of stock price, non-venture income and so on. At the same time, all the factors build up a uncertain system, some of its information is unknown and some is known. As for this system, we can do nothing but get some historical and approximate understand of establishment and forecasting transferable price by traditional and relatively exact quantitative analysis method like B-S model. So we need some new breakthroughs in establishment and forecasting transferable bond's price whether in theory or in practice.Gray System Theory is a modern mathematics method, which is arisen in 1980's, is used to research uncertain problem lack of data and information. Gray System Theory can be used to study uncertain or a few swatch or deficient information system, some of its information is known and some is unknown. We should realize right describe and supervising of system circulation behavior and evolvement rule.This paper applies Gray System method to establish and forecast Wanke bond instead of traditional transferable bond's price method. We get well result in "time window" of price's big turn and the section of price circulation by using Gray System method. The illustration shows that we can dispose uncertain problem lack of data and information preferably and settle the problem of establishment and forecasting transferable bond price tersely and effectively by application of modern mathematics method.